Duke, N.C., Mackenzie, J., Kovacs, J., Staben, G., Coles, R., Wood, A., and Castle, Y. (2020) Assessing the Gulf of Carpentaria mangrove dieback 2017–2019. External Commissioned Report. James Cook University, Townsville, QLD, Australia.

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Abstract

In late 2015, extensive areas of mangroves across the Gulf of Carpentaria (the Gulf) died under mysterious circumstances. This significant event became public in early 2016 when shocking images by local fishermen and environmental consultants emerged from this remote part of northern Australia. The images showed the impacted area extended along more than 1,000 km of shoreline where at least 7,400 ha of mangroves had died seemingly in a matter of months (Duke et al., 2017). There were many questions about the potential cause but what became clear was the lack of a known responsible factor – like a severe storm or a large chemical spill. The one corresponding event at the time concerned the unusually extreme El Niño weather event with record-breaking high temperatures, a prolonged drought, and an associated sudden temporary drop in sea level. There were no prior records that showed that any of these factors caused such extensive dieback of mangroves before. While there was uncertainty surrounding the cause, the scale of the event was unprecedented in severity and extent.

Subsequent to this discovery in 2016, the National Environmental Science Program (NESP) funded the James Cook University TropWATER Centre to conduct an urgent 3-year research investigation into this mass dieback. The objective was to elaborate on the circumstances surrounding the event, to map the extent, to conduct aerial surveys to quantify shoreline condition, to carry out field studies to validate remote assessments, to engage with local Aboriginal ranger groups and to raise their capacity for monitoring, and to generally raise awareness of the incident and its cause amongst Gulf community residents and the wider group of stakeholders and end users in Queensland and the Northern Territory.

These investigations completed in late 2019 were led by Dr Norman Duke and Jock Mackenzie from James Cook University (JCU) TropWATER Centre MangroveWatch Hub. The results presented with this final report for the project make up two volumes: Volume 1 – mapping and aerial shoreline surveys of mangrove condition and change along the coastline and major estuary mouths; and Volume 2 – field studies of shoreline condition plus communication efforts achieved and planned.

Item ID:	69083
Item Type:	Report (External Commissioned Report)
ISBN:	978-1-925800-55-5
Copyright Information:	© James Cook University, 2020. Assessing the Gulf of Carpentaria mangrove dieback 2017–2019. Volume 1: Aerial surveys is licensed by James Cook University for use under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Australia licence. For licence conditions see creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0
Date Deposited:	01 Oct 2026 00:51
FoR Codes:	41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4101 Climate change impacts and adaptation > 410102 Ecological impacts of climate change and ecological adaptation @ 40% 31 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 3103 Ecology > 310305 Marine and estuarine ecology (incl. marine ichthyology) @ 40% 45 INDIGENOUS STUDIES > 4503 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander environmental knowledges and management > 450306 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander land and water management @ 20%
SEO Codes:	19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1904 Natural hazards > 190404 Hydrological hazards (e.g. avalanches and floods) @ 30% 18 ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT > 1802 Coastal and estuarine systems and management > 180201 Assessment and management of coastal and estuarine ecosystems @ 40% 19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1905 Understanding climate change > 190508 Understanding the impact of natural hazards caused by climate change @ 30%
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