Forecasting marine invasions under climate change: biotic interactions and demographic processes matter

Mellin, C., Lurgi, M., Matthews, S., MacNeil, M.A., Caley, M.J., Bax, N., Przeslawski, R., and Fordham, D.A. (2016) Forecasting marine invasions under climate change: biotic interactions and demographic processes matter. Biological Conservation, 204 (Part B). pp. 459-467.

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Abstract

Biological invasions are one of the most significant threats to marine biodiversity, and can be facilitated and amplified by climate change. Among all aspects of invasion biology, biotic interactions between invaders and native species are of particular importance. They strongly influence the invasion velocity as well as species responses to climate-induced stressors. Yet the effects of biotic interactions and other important demographic processes remain overlooked among most studies of climate-mediated invasions. We critically assessed current modelling techniques for forecasting marine invasions under climate change, with a particular focus on their ability to account for important biotic interactions and demographic processes. We show that coupled range dynamics models currently represent the most comprehensive and promising approach for modelling and managing marine invasions under climate change. We show, using the crown-of-thorns seastar (Acanthaster planci), why model architectures that account for biotic interactions and demographic and spatial processes (and their interaction) are required to provide ecologically realistic predictions of the distribution and abundance of invader species, both under present-day conditions and into the future. We suggest potential solutions to inform data-poor situations, such as Bayesian parameter estimation and meta-analysis, and identify strategic and targeted gaps in marine invasion research.

Item ID: 49173
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1873-2917
Keywords: Acanthaster planci; alien species; climate change; crown-of-thorns seastar; range shift; exotic species; marine biodiversity; metapopulation model; non-indigenous species; biotic interactions
Funders: National Environmental Research Program (NERP), Australian Research Council (ARC)
Projects and Grants: ARC DE140100701, LP1202002A & FT140101192
Date Deposited: 13 Jun 2017 01:23
FoR Codes: 05 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 0501 Ecological Applications > 050101 Ecological Impacts of Climate Change @ 60%
06 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 0602 Ecology > 060205 Marine and Estuarine Ecology (incl Marine Ichthyology) @ 40%
SEO Codes: 96 ENVIRONMENT > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960305 Ecosystem Adaptation to Climate Change @ 30%
96 ENVIRONMENT > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960307 Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Australia (excl. Social Impacts) @ 40%
96 ENVIRONMENT > 9604 Control of Pests, Diseases and Exotic Species > 960407 Control of Pests, Diseases and Exotic Species in Marine Environments @ 30%
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