Assessing interactions of multiple stressors when data are limited: a Bayesian belief network applied to coral reefs

Ban, Stephen S., Pressey, Robert L., and Graham, Nicholas A.J. (2014) Assessing interactions of multiple stressors when data are limited: a Bayesian belief network applied to coral reefs. Global Environmental Change, 27. pp. 64-72.

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Abstract

Bayesian belief networks are finding increasing application in adaptive ecosystem management where data are limited and uncertainty is high. The combined effect of multiple stressors is one area where considerable uncertainty exists. Our study area, the Great Barrier Reef is simultaneously data-rich – concerning the physical and biological environment – and data-poor – concerning the effects of interacting stressors. We used a formal expert-elicitation process to obtain estimates of outcomes associated with a variety of scenarios that combined stressors both within and outside the control of local managers. There was much stronger consensus about certain stressor effects – such as between temperature anomalies and bleaching – than others, such as the relationship between water quality and coral cover. In general, the expert outlook for the Great Barrier Reef is pessimistic, with the potential for climate change effects potentially to overshadow the effects of local management actions.

Item ID: 36172
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1872-9495
Keywords: climate change, conservation planning, coral reef, risk assessment, Bayesian belief network, expert elicitation
Additional Information:

Supplementary data associated with this article can be found, in the online version, at doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2014.04.018.

Funders: Australian Research Council (ARC)
Date Deposited: 12 Nov 2014 10:38
FoR Codes: 06 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 0602 Ecology > 060205 Marine and Estuarine Ecology (incl Marine Ichthyology) @ 34%
05 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 0501 Ecological Applications > 050101 Ecological Impacts of Climate Change @ 33%
05 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050205 Environmental Management @ 33%
SEO Codes: 96 ENVIRONMENT > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960305 Ecosystem Adaptation to Climate Change @ 33%
96 ENVIRONMENT > 9605 Ecosystem Assessment and Management > 960507 Ecosystem Assessment and Management of Marine Environments @ 33%
96 ENVIRONMENT > 9608 Flora, Fauna and Biodiversity > 960808 Marine Flora, Fauna and Biodiversity @ 34%
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