McClanahan, Timothy R., Graham, Nicholas A.J., and Darling, Emily S. (2014) Coral reefs in a crystal ball: predicting the future from the vulnerability of corals and reef fishes to multiple stressors. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 7. pp. 59-64.

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Abstract

Coral reef communities are likely to change in the future as reef organisms respond differently to various stressors. In order to predict future reef compositions, we apply estimates of coral and fish vulnerability to two key stressors; climate change (bleaching) and fishing. Most corals were vulnerable to one or both stressors, and future coral communities are likely to comprise stress-tolerant and weedy life histories. Fish assemblages displayed a negative relationship to the two stressors; climate impacts and fishing independently influenced a different suite of species. Most functionally important groups of fishes were more vulnerable to fishing than climate change. While climate change will negatively affect many taxa (particularly reef corals), reducing local fishing impacts should benefit reef futures by enhancing key ecosystem processes.

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