Duke, Norman Clive, Mackenzie, Jock R., Canning, Adam, Hutley, Lindsay B., Bourke, Adam J., Kovacs, John, Cormier, Riley, Staben, Grant, Lymburner, Leo, and Ai, Emma (2022) ENSO-driven extreme oscillations in mean sea level destabilise critical shoreline mangroves—An emerging threat. PLOS Climate, 1 (8). e0000037.

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Abstract

Recent ENSO-related, extreme low oscillations in mean sea level, referred to as ‘Taimasa’ in Samoa, have destabilised shoreline mangroves of tropical northern Australia, and possibly elsewhere. In 1982 and 2015, two catastrophic Taimasa each resulted in widespread mass dieback of ~76 km2 of shoreline mangroves along 2,000 km of Australia’s Gulf of Carpentaria. For the 2015 event, we determined that a temporary drop in sea level of ~0.4 metres for up to six months duration caused upper zone shoreline mangroves across the region to die from severe moisture deficit and desiccation. The two dramatic collapse events revealed a previously unrecognised vulnerability of semi-arid tidal wetland habitats to more extreme ENSO influences on sea level. In addition, we also observed a relationship between annual sea level oscillations and mangrove forest productivity where seasonal oscillations in mean sea level were co-incident with regular annual mangrove leaf growth during months of higher sea levels (March-May), and leaf shedding during lower sea levels (September-November). The combination of these periodic fluctuations in sea level defined a mangrove ‘Goldilocks’ zone of seasonal productivity during median-scale oscillations, bracketed by critical threshold events when sea levels became unusually low, or high. On the two occasions reported here when sea levels were extremely low, upper zone mangrove vegetation died en masse in synchrony across northern Australia. Such extreme pulse impacts combined with localised stressors profoundly threaten the longer-term survival of mangrove ecosystems and their benefits, like minimisation of shoreline erosion with rising sea levels. These new insights into such critical influences of climate and sea level on mangrove forests offer further affirmation of the urgency for implementing well-considered mitigation efforts for the protection of shoreline mangroves at risk, especially given predictions of future re-occurrences of extreme events affecting sea levels, combined with on-going pressure of rapidly rising sea levels.

Item ID:	75740
Item Type:	Article (Research - C1)
ISSN:	2767-3200
Copyright Information:	© 2022 Duke et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Date Deposited:	16 Aug 2022 02:21
FoR Codes:	31 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 3103 Ecology > 310305 Marine and estuarine ecology (incl. marine ichthyology) @ 30% 41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4101 Climate change impacts and adaptation > 410102 Ecological impacts of climate change and ecological adaptation @ 50% 41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4104 Environmental management > 410402 Environmental assessment and monitoring @ 20%
SEO Codes:	19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1904 Natural hazards > 190405 Meteorological hazards (e.g. cyclones and storms) @ 40% 18 ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT > 1802 Coastal and estuarine systems and management > 180201 Assessment and management of coastal and estuarine ecosystems @ 40% 19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1903 Mitigation of climate change > 190301 Climate change mitigation strategies @ 20%
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