Effects of climate change on fish and shellfish relevant to Pacific Islands, and the coastal fisheries they support
Johnson, Johanna, Betram, Ian, Chin, Andrew, Moore, Bradley, Pratchett, Morgan, Welch, David, Williams, Ashley, Bell, Johann, and Govan, Hugh (2018) Effects of climate change on fish and shellfish relevant to Pacific Islands, and the coastal fisheries they support. Report. Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, Suffolk, UK.
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Abstract
In the Pacific Islands region, fish and invertebrates (specifically shellfish) fulfil important ecological roles in coastal and oceanic habitats, and many species are targeted by fisheries, making vital contributions to food security, livelihoods, government revenue and cultural heritage. Climate change is expected to have profound effects on the status and distribution of coastal and oceanic habitats, the fish and invertebrates they support and, as a result, the productivity of fisheries and aquaculture. In particular, declines in the productivity of demersal fish and invertebrates, and a more eastward distribution of some tuna species, are expected to present the greatest challenges for the use of fisheries resources by Pacific communities and economies. Some invertebrates which are important aquaculture commodities (such as pearl oysters and shrimp) will also be impacted by global warming and ocean acidification. The projected declines in coastal fish and invertebrate populations will widen the gap between fish needed by growing human populations and sustainable harvests, with shortages expected in some Pacific nations (e.g. Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands) by 2035. There will also be a need to diversify livelihoods based on fisheries and aquaculture operations in the region because some of these operations are expected to be negatively affected, and others favoured, by climate change. In some cases, building the resilience of Pacific communities to climate change will involve reducing dependence on, or finding alternative uses of, vulnerable marine resources.