Drivers and predictions of coral reef carbonate budget trajectories

Januchowski-Hartley, Fraser, Graham, Nicholas A.J., Wilson, Shaun K., Jennings, Simon, and Perry, Chris T. (2017) Drivers and predictions of coral reef carbonate budget trajectories. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B, Biological Sciences, 284 (1847). 20162533.

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Climate change is one of the greatest threats to the long-term maintenance of coral-dominated tropical ecosystems, and has received considerable attention over the past two decades. Coral bleaching and associated mortality events, which are predicted to become more frequent and intense, can alter the balance of different elements that are responsible for coral reef growth and maintenance. The geomorphic impacts of coral mass mortality have received relatively little attention, particularly questions concerning temporal recovery of reef carbonate production and the factors that promote resilience of reef growth potential. Here, we track the biological carbonate budgets of inner Seychelles reefs from 1994 to 2014, spanning the 1998 global bleaching event when these reefs lost more than 90% of coral cover. All 21 reefs had positive budgets in 1994, but in 2005 budgets were predominantly negative. By 2014, carbonate budgets on seven reefs were comparable with 1994, but on all reefs where an ecological regime shift to macroalgal dominance occurred, budgets remained negative through 2014. Reefs with higher massive coral cover, lower macroalgae cover and lower excavating parrotfish biomass in 1994 were more likely to have positive budgets post-bleaching. If mortality of corals from the 2016 bleaching event is as severe as that of 1998, our predictions based on past trends would suggest that six of eight reefs with positive budgets in 2014 would still have positive budgets by 2030. Our results highlight that reef accretion and framework maintenance cannot be assumed from the ecological state alone, and that managers should focus on conserving aspects of coral reefs that support resilient carbonate budgets.

Item ID: 50417
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1471-2954
Keywords: bioerosion, coral bleaching, carbonate production, parrotfish, regime shifts, Seychelles
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Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.

Funders: Leverhulme Trust, Western Indian Ocean Marine Science Association, Australian Research Council (ARC), Ecosystem Services for Poverty Alleviation (ESPA) programme, Royal Society (RS)
Projects and Grants: ESPA Sustainable Poverty Alleviation from Coastal Ecosystem Services (SPACES) project NE-K010484-1, RS University Research Fellowship RF-2015-152
Date Deposited: 20 Sep 2017 08:46
FoR Codes: 41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4101 Climate change impacts and adaptation > 410102 Ecological impacts of climate change and ecological adaptation @ 50%
31 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 3103 Ecology > 310305 Marine and estuarine ecology (incl. marine ichthyology) @ 50%
SEO Codes: 96 ENVIRONMENT > 9608 Flora, Fauna and Biodiversity > 960808 Marine Flora, Fauna and Biodiversity @ 100%
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