Climate drivers of the 2015 Gulf of Carpentaria mangrove dieback
Harris, Todd, Hope, Pandora, Oliver, Eric, Smalley, Robert, Arblaster, Julie, Holbrook, Neil, Duke, Norman, Pearce, Karen, Braganza, Karl, and Bindoff, Nathaniel (2017) Climate drivers of the 2015 Gulf of Carpentaria mangrove dieback. Report. Bureau of Meteorology, Canberra, ACT, Australia.
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Abstract
ESCC Hub researchers investigated the oceanic and atmospheric conditions leading up to the major mangrove dieback in late 2015 to identify potential stressors that contributed to the tree deaths. They found that it was most likely a result of a combination of very dry conditions and lower than average sea level. In combination, it appears that these conditions were unprecedented since at least 1971, and linked to the strong El Niño of 2015/16. More detailed attribution studies are necessary to determine what role, if any, human-induced climate change played in the 2015 dieback event. This would help inform natural resource policy-makers, planners and associated decision-makers about the causes of such events and how they may change into the future.