Projections of climate conditions that increase coral disease susceptibility and pathogen abundance and virulence

Maynard, Jeffrey, van Hooidonk, Ruben, Eakin, C. Mark, Puotinen, Marjetta, Garren, Melissa, Williams, Gareth, Heron, Scott F., Lamb, Joleah, Weil, Ernesto, Willis, Bette, and Harvell, C. Drew (2015) Projections of climate conditions that increase coral disease susceptibility and pathogen abundance and virulence. Nature Climate Change, 5 (7). pp. 688-695.

[img] PDF (Published Version) - Published Version
Restricted to Repository staff only

View at Publisher Website: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2625
 
75
4


Abstract

Rising sea temperatures are likely to increase the frequency of disease outbreaks affecting reef-building corals through impacts on coral hosts and pathogens. We present and compare climate model projections of temperature conditions that will increase coral susceptibility to disease, pathogen abundance and pathogen virulence. Both moderate (RCP 4.5) and fossil fuel aggressive (RCP 8.5) emissions scenarios are examined. We also compare projections for the onset of disease-conducive conditions and severe annual coral bleaching, and produce a disease risk summary that combines climate stress with stress caused by local human activities. There is great spatial variation in the projections, both among and within the major ocean basins, in conditions favouring disease development. Our results indicate that disease is as likely to cause coral mortality as bleaching in the coming decades. These projections identify priority locations to reduce stress caused by local human activities and test management interventions to reduce disease impacts.

Item ID: 41679
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1758-6798
Keywords: conservation biology; tropical ecology
Funders: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Science Foundation (USA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coral Reef Conservation Program , US National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative, European Research Commission, Nature Conservancy
Projects and Grants: NOAA NA13OAR4310127
Date Deposited: 08 Dec 2015 14:10
FoR Codes: 05 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 0501 Ecological Applications > 050101 Ecological Impacts of Climate Change @ 50%
06 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 0602 Ecology > 060205 Marine and Estuarine Ecology (incl Marine Ichthyology) @ 50%
SEO Codes: 96 ENVIRONMENT > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960399 Climate and Climate Change not elsewhere classified @ 50%
96 ENVIRONMENT > 9608 Flora, Fauna and Biodiversity > 960808 Marine Flora, Fauna and Biodiversity @ 50%
Downloads: Total: 4
More Statistics

Actions (Repository Staff Only)

Item Control Page Item Control Page