Transitional states in marine fisheries: adapting to predicted global change

MacNeil, M. Aaron, Graham, Nicholas A.J., Cinner, Joshua E., Dulvy, Nicholas K., Loring, Philip A., Jennings, Simon, Polunin, Nicholas V., Fisk, Aaron T., and McClanahan, Tim R. (2010) Transitional states in marine fisheries: adapting to predicted global change. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 365 (1558). pp. 3753-3763.

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Global climate change has the potential to substantially alter the production and community structure of marine fisheries and modify the ongoing impacts of fishing. Fish community com- position is already changing in some tropical, temperate and polar ecosystems, where local combinations of warming trends and higher environmental variation anticipate the changes likely to occur more widely over coming decades. Using case studies from the Western Indian Ocean, the North Sea and the Bering Sea, we contextualize the direct and indirect effects of climate change on production and biodiversity and, in turn, on the social and economic aspects of marine fisheries. Climate warming is expected to lead to (i) yield and species losses in tropical reef fisheries, driven primarily by habitat loss; (ii) community turnover in temperate fisheries, owing to the arrival and increasing dominance of warm-water species as well as the reduced dominance and departure of cold-water species; and (iii) increased diversity and yield in Arctic fisheries, arising from invasions of southern species and increased primary production resulting from ice-free summer conditions. How societies deal with such changes will depend largely on their capacity to adapt—to plan and implement effective responses to change—a process heavily influenced by social, economic, political and cultural conditions.

Item ID: 12133
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1471-2970
Keywords: climate change; fish communities; social–ecological systems; biodiversity
Date Deposited: 29 Oct 2010 04:15
FoR Codes: 06 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 0602 Ecology > 060205 Marine and Estuarine Ecology (incl Marine Ichthyology) @ 30%
05 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 0501 Ecological Applications > 050101 Ecological Impacts of Climate Change @ 40%
07 AGRICULTURAL AND VETERINARY SCIENCES > 0704 Fisheries Sciences > 070403 Fisheries Management @ 30%
SEO Codes: 83 ANIMAL PRODUCTION AND ANIMAL PRIMARY PRODUCTS > 8302 Fisheries - Wild Caught > 830204 Wild Caught Fin Fish (excl. Tuna) @ 100%
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