Dehont, Elise, Choukroun, Severine, Grech, Alana, and Quigley, Kate M. (2026) Limited source–sink connections shape south-western Pacific coral reef resilience under current and future warming. Journal of Applied Ecology, 63 (4). e70376.

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Abstract

1. Current and future coral reef resilience will depend heavily on larval connectivity between reef systems, enabling populations to recover from repeated disturbance. However, climate warming is rapidly reducing larval dispersal, threatening reef recovery potential following mass bleaching.

2. Using a stochastic biophysical Lagrangian particle-tracking model, this study examined large-scale dispersal of coral larvae across the southern Pacific Ocean, focusing on reefs classified using an eco-evolutionary framework (‘resistance, recovery, avoidance’). Dispersal was simulated across 850 reefs in the southwestern Pacific (2011–2024) for two coral species representing branching or massive corals under three warming scenarios (+1°C, +2.5°C, +4°C), and analysed for source–sink dynamics.

3. We identified key stepping-stone reefs in the Coral Sea and show that resilient, heat-tolerant reefs have limited source–sink connectivity within this larger region.

4. Lord Howe Island (LHI) may represent a potential refugium in a future of significant larval dispersal limitation under projected climate warming. However, its limited connectivity constrains its natural contribution to regional larval supply, making it simultaneously a conservation priority and a candidate for managed intervention.

5. Synthesis and applications. Our results demonstrate the importance of integrating connectivity into conservation planning by highlighting that the current marine protected area networks across the southwestern Pacific should be managed as an interconnected network rather than as isolated reserves. Additionally, a prioritisation of the enhanced protection of Coral Sea reefs and LHI is warranted given their importance as stepping-stone reefs bridging distant reef systems or isolated dispersal, respectively. Finally, the intentional movement of larvae from resilient, heat-tolerant reefs to other locations could be investigated given their lower relative outward connectivity, with the aim to boost heat tolerance in surrounding reefs. Taken together, these results show that a potential expansion of transboundary management frameworks will be critical to maintain important larval corridors between the southern Great Barrier Reef, New Caledonia and LHI to sustain regional metapopulation resilience under the pressure of a warming world.

Item ID:	91332
Item Type:	Article (Research - C1)
ISSN:	1365-2664
Keywords:	biophysical model, climate change, connectivity, coral reefs, dispersal, Great Barrier Reef, larvae, Lord Howe Island
Copyright Information:	This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. © 2026 The Author(s). Journal of Applied Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.
Funders:	Australian Research Council (ARC)
Projects and Grants:	ARC DE230100284
Date Deposited:	01 May 2026 00:06
FoR Codes:	31 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 3103 Ecology > 310305 Marine and estuarine ecology (incl. marine ichthyology) @ 100%
SEO Codes:	18 ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT > 1805 Marine systems and management > 180504 Marine biodiversity @ 100%
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