Changes in phenology mediate vertebrate population responses to temperature globally
Radchuk, Viktoriia, Jones, Carys V., Mclean, Nina, Charmantier, Anne, Teplitsky, Céline, Alisauskas, Ray, Ancona, Sergio, Anker-Nilssen, Tycho, Arcese, Peter, Arlt, Debora, Aubry, Lise M., Bailey, Liam, Barbraud, Christophe, Berg, Karl S., Berteaux, Dominique, Blumstein, Daniel T., Bouwhuis, Sandra, Brose, Ulrich, Brouwer, Lyanne, Catry, Paulo, Chero, Guillaume, Chiaradia, Andre, Courtiol, Alexandre, Daunt, Francis, Delord, Karine, Dobson, F. Stephen, Drummond, Hugh, Eeva, Tapio, Fauteux, Dominique, Gauthier, Gilles, Genovart, Meritxell, Granadeiro, José P., Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas, Harris, Michael, Igual, José Manuel, Janzen, Fredric, Keogan, Katharine, Korpimäki, Erkki, Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie, Kruuk, Loeske E.B., Lewis, Sue, Mallory, Mark, Martin, Julien, Massot, Manuel, Matthysen, Erik, Mihoub, Jean Baptiste, Møller, Anders Pape, Nater, Chloé R., Newell, Mark, Oppel, Steffen, Oro, Daniel, Ortega, Santiago, Parejo, Deseada, Pärt, Tomas, Payo-Payo, Ana, Pemberton, Josephine, Phillips, Richard A., Pillay, Neville, Avilés, Jesús M., Rödel, Heiko G., Sanz-Aguilar, Ana, Saraux, Claire, Schielzeth, Holger, Schradin, Carsten, Schroeder, Julia, Sheldon, Ben C., Tavecchia, Giacomo, Tarwater, Corey E., Veiberg, Vebjørn, Viblanc, Vincent A., von Holst, Dietrich, Vriend, Stefan J.G., Wanless, Sarah, Wheelwright, Nathaniel, Wood, Andrew G., Sæther, Bernt Erik, Jenouvrier, Stephanie, Clobert, Jean, Beissinger, Steven R., Visser, Marcel E., Reed, Thomas E., and van de Pol, Martijn (2026) Changes in phenology mediate vertebrate population responses to temperature globally. Nature Communications, 17 (1). 479.
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Abstract
Phenotypic responses to climate affect individual fitness, but the extent to which this translates into effects on population dynamics remains poorly understood. We assemble 213 time series on phenotypes and population sizes of wild vertebrates globally and match them with local climate data. Our meta-analysis shows that morphological traits are mostly climate insensitive. However, phenology is earlier in warmer-than-average years, which contributes positively to population growth in most species. At lower latitudes, temperature has weaker effects on phenology but stronger direct negative effects on population growth, likely because these populations are less capable of tracking climate via plasticity. Variation in the phenology-mediated effect of temperature on population growth cannot be explained by latitude, generation time, migratory mode, or diet. This suggests that simple relationships between species characteristics and population responses to warming may not occur in nature. Instead, we may need to embrace ecological complexity by considering local-scale predictors that capture intra-specific variation.
| Item ID: | 90683 |
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| Item Type: | Article (Research - C1) |
| ISSN: | 2041-1723 |
| Copyright Information: | This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
| Date Deposited: | 25 Feb 2026 23:13 |
| FoR Codes: | 31 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 3103 Ecology > 310307 Population ecology @ 70% 41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4101 Climate change impacts and adaptation > 410102 Ecological impacts of climate change and ecological adaptation @ 30% |
| SEO Codes: | 19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1901 Adaptation to climate change > 190102 Ecosystem adaptation to climate change @ 70% 28 EXPANDING KNOWLEDGE > 2801 Expanding knowledge > 280102 Expanding knowledge in the biological sciences @ 30% |
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