Esquivel-Muelbert, Adriane, Banbury Morgan, Rebecca, Brienen, Roel, Gloor, Emanuel, Lewis, Simon L., Dexter, Kyle G., Almeida, Everton, Almeida de Oliveira, Edmar, Álvarez-Dávila, Esteban, Alves de Oliveira, Atila, Andrade, Ana, Vieira, Simone Aparecida, Aragão, Luiz, Araujo-Murakami, Alejandro, Arets, Eric, Arroyo, Luzmila, Aymard-Corredor, Gerardo, Banki, Olaf, de Camargo, Plinio Barbosa, Barroso, Jorcely, Blanc, Lilian, Brown, Foster, Camargo, José Luís, Castro, Wendeson, Chama Moscoso, Victor, Chave, Jérôme, Chavez, Ezequiel, Comiskey, James, da Costa, Antônio Carlos Lola, del Aguila Pasquel, Jhon, Derroire, Géraldine, Di Fiore, Anthony, Fauset, Sophie, Feldpausch, Ted R., Flores Llampazo, Gerardo, Guillen Villaroel, Rene, Herrera, Rafael, Higuchi, Niro, Honorio Coronado, Eurídice, Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Isau, Huaraca Huasco, Walter, Jimenez, Eliana, Killeen, Timothy, Laurance, Susan, Laurance, William, Levesley, Aurora, Lopez-Gonzalez, Gabriela, Malhi, Yadvinder, Marimon, Beatriz, Marimon Junior, Ben Hur, Matias de Almeida Reis, Simone, Mendoza Bautista, Casimiro, Polo, Irina Mendoza, Monteagudo-Mendoza, Abel, Morandi, Paulo Sérgio, Nogueira Lima, Adriano, Núñez Vargas, Percy, Pallqui Camacho, Nadir, Parada Gutierrez, Alexander, Peacock, Julie, Peñuela-Mora, Maria Cristina, Pickavance, Georgia, Pipoly, John, Pitman, Nigel, Prieto, Adriana, Quesada, Carlos, Ramirez Arevalo, Freddy, Réjou-Méchain, Maxime, Restrepo Correa, Zorayda, Rojas, Rocio, Rodriguez Bayona, Lily, Roopsind, Anand, Salomão, Rafael, Silva, Natalino, Silva Espejo, Javier, Silveira, Marcos, Stropp, Juliana, Talbot, Joey, ter Steege, Hans, Terborgh, John, Thomas, Raquel, Gamarra, Luis Valenzuela, van der Hout, Peter, Vasquez Martinez, Rodolfo, Guimarães Vieira, Ima Célia, Vilanova, Emilio, Zagt, Roderick, Baker, Timothy R., and Phillips, Oliver L. (2025) Increasing tree size across Amazonia. Nature Plants, 11. pp. 2016-2025.

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Abstract

Climate change and increasing availability of resources such as carbon dioxide are modifying forest functioning worldwide, but the effects of these changes on forest structure are unclear. As additional resources become available, for example, through CO<inf>2</inf> fertilization or nitrogen deposition, large trees, with greater access to light, may be expected to gain further advantages. Conversely, smaller light-suppressed trees might benefit more if their light compensation point changes, while bigger trees may be the most negatively impacted by increasing heat and drought. We assessed recent changes in the structure of Earth’s largest tropical forest by analysing 30 years of Amazonian tree records across 188 mature forest plots. We find that, at a stand level, trees have become larger over time, with mean tree basal area increasing by 3.3% per decade (95% CI 2.4; 4.1). Larger trees have increased in both number and size, yet we observed similar rates of relative size gain in large and small trees. This evidence is consistent with a resource-driven boost for larger trees but also a reduction in suppression among smaller trees. These results, especially the persistence and consistency of tree size increases across Amazonian forest plots, communities and regions, indicate that any negative impacts of climate change on forests and large trees here have so far been mitigated by the positive effects of increased resources.

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