Conceptual development and implementation of a digital twin model for managing saltwater intrusion of an island coastal aquifer
Sharan, Ashneel, Datta, Bithin, Roy, Dilip Kumar, and Lal, Alvin (2025) Conceptual development and implementation of a digital twin model for managing saltwater intrusion of an island coastal aquifer. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 197 (10). 1148.
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Abstract
Saltwater intrusion (SWI) poses a significant environmental challenge for coastal aquifers in Pacific Island nations, including Port Vila, Vanuatu. This study utilised a 3D numerical simulation model to evaluate SWI in the Tagabe coastal aquifer under current pumping regimes. To address SWI, optimal pumping patterns were identified through machine learning-based surrogate ensemble models and a simulation-optimisation (S–O) management model. A digital twin (DT) framework of the Tagabe coastal aquifer was developed, incorporating a 3D numerical model, surrogate ensemble models, and the S–O approach. The DT framework, linked with illustrative field data, was used to generate and analyse five illustrative scenarios based on varying salt concentrations (0.45, 0.55, 0.75, 0.90, and 1.15 kg/m<sup>3</sup>; Scenarios 1 to 5, respectively). The results indicated that scenario 3 (salt concentration of 0.75 kg/m<sup>3</sup>) led to the highest pumping rates from production wells (17,317 m<sup>3</sup>/d) and the lowest from barrier wells (202 m<sup>3</sup>/d), while scenario 5 showed maximum pumping of 31,676 m<sup>3</sup>/d from production wells and 5000 m<sup>3</sup>/d from barrier wells. The S–O model results were validated with less than 10% relative error compared to the numerical model outputs. To the author’s best knowledge, the application of DT in managing SWI has not been applied before. This study is the first to apply a DT framework for managing SWI in coastal aquifers, showcasing its potential for predicting future scenarios and optimising water management strategies. The results from the study indicated that DT can be successfully employed in a coastal aquifer for managing the SWI. The methodology developed and implemented in this study is of global significance and could be used to manage water resources wisely. The study demonstrated that with the help of the S–O approach, the DT is vital in predicting future scenarios, changes in pumping patterns, and other uncertainties.
| Item ID: | 89213 |
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| Item Type: | Article (Research - C1) |
| ISSN: | 1573-2959 |
| Keywords: | Digital twin, Ensemble surrogate model, Pacific Island countries, Saltwater intrusion, SEAWAT, Simulation-optimisation |
| Copyright Information: | © The Author(s) 2025. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
| Date Deposited: | 15 Jul 2026 01:55 |
| FoR Codes: | 41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4104 Environmental management > 410404 Environmental management @ 100% |
| SEO Codes: | 18 ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT > 1802 Coastal and estuarine systems and management > 180201 Assessment and management of coastal and estuarine ecosystems @ 100% |
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