A photophysiological model of coral bleaching simulates declines and recovery during an emulated multi-doldrum marine heatwave event
Ellis, Sophia L., Baird, Mark E., Butcherine, Peter, Fiori, Amarah T., Harrison, Luke P., Hendrickson, Conor, Schulz, Kai G., and Harrison, Daniel P. (2025) A photophysiological model of coral bleaching simulates declines and recovery during an emulated multi-doldrum marine heatwave event. Coral Reefs, 44 (5). pp. 1737-1757.
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Abstract
Mass coral bleaching events have become increasingly frequent since the 1980s as sea surface temperatures have risen. Extremes of light and temperature stress leading to coral bleaching can develop when doldrum meteorological conditions occur during a marine heatwave event. The coral bleaching model simulates bleaching by tracking the build-up of reactive oxygen species driven by temperature-mediated, light-driven oxidative stress, triggering symbiont cell expulsion. This study is the first to evaluate the coral bleaching model for its ability to simulate heat and light stress dynamics in the coral Acropora kenti over multiple doldrum events and an intermediate recovery period. We tested model fidelity by comparing model predictions against laboratory measurements of coral bleaching stress taken during an emulated multi-doldrum marine heatwave event, incorporating artificial shade treatments. The model consistently predicted greater bleaching at increased temperatures and reduced shade levels, with an intermediate recovery period simulated between the doldrum events. Simulated bleaching stress captured up to fifty per cent of the variation in observed antioxidant enzyme activity. This study confirms that the significant emergent features of the model are present, as overall, the model adequately represented bleaching outcomes concerning the interactions between temperature and light. Thus, process-based modelling could be a valuable tool for predicting bleaching outcomes and optimising shading techniques, providing scientific managers with actionable strategies for mitigating coral bleaching.
| Item ID: | 89212 |
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| Item Type: | Article (Research - C1) |
| ISSN: | 1432-0975 |
| Keywords: | Coral bleaching, Marine heatwave, Numerical model, Reactive oxygen species, Shading intervention |
| Copyright Information: | © The Author(s) 2025. This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. |
| Date Deposited: | 15 Jul 2026 01:46 |
| FoR Codes: | 31 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 3103 Ecology > 310305 Marine and estuarine ecology (incl. marine ichthyology) @ 100% |
| SEO Codes: | 18 ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT > 1805 Marine systems and management > 180504 Marine biodiversity @ 100% |
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