Choukroun, Severine, Stewart, Owen B., Mason, Luciano B., and Bode, Michael (2025) Larval dispersal predictions are highly sensitive to hydrodynamic modelling choices. Coral Reefs, 44 (1). pp. 1-13.

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Abstract

Larval dispersal is a critical ecological process in marine ecosystems, responsible for connecting and replenishing populations in patchy habitat. Because empirical measurements of larval dispersal are very challenging, coupled biological and oceanographic simulations (“biophysical models”) of larval dispersal are commonly used to answer ecological questions and support conservation management decisions. In the process of creating biophysical models, a series of choices must be made that do not have a single correct answer—sometimes because the oceanographic or ecological processes are uncertain; sometimes because trade-offs are required between different goals (e.g. computational time versus spatial resolution). In this paper, we demonstrate that larval dispersal estimates at management scales are strongly affected by these choices. Using three different hydrodynamic models of the Great Barrier Reef, we estimated the dispersal of crown-of-thorns starfish larvae in the spawning seasons between 2018 and 2021. Despite sharing similar physical forcings and using similar models of larval behaviour, we find that the different hydrodynamic models produce divergent predictions of larval dispersal between the reefs. If used to support crown-of-thorns starfish control decisions, these different predictions would recommend different priority reefs. Our results caution against the use of single models of larval dispersal, and suggest that multi-model ensembles may offer a valuable new perspective on dispersal patterns in marine environments.

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