Vulliet, Cécile, Koci, Jack, Sheaves, Marcus, and Waltham, Nathan (2025) Contrasting effects in tidal inundation under varying sea levels on the ecological structure and functions of tropical marsh ecosystems. Science of the Total Environment, 980. 179500.

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Abstract

Coastal managers continue to be confronted with making management decisions with few data available and insight of the outcomes. Practical tools that can be used to inform on the effects of different scenarios of changes are particularly important to assist decision-making. This study has applied a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) to investigate the contrasting effects of Sea Level Rise (SLR) scenarios and a reduction in tidal inundation on a tropical tidal wetland mosaic including saltmarshes, mangroves, and intertidal mudflats. We investigated: 1) the habitability of the study site for tidal vegetation under different scenarios associated with changes in inundation; and 2) the probability that the ecological values of export of crab zoea and blue carbon be supported under the scenarios. The study highlights that, without the ability to adjust to future SLR scenarios, saltmarshes here are likely to be lost to mangroves, and open water, under a scenario of 0.8 m SLR. Tidal inundation reduction decreased mangrove cover but increased habitability for terrestrial vegetation and subtidal herbaceous saltmarshes. SLR is likely to positively affect the blue carbon value but decreases the likelihood of the site holding high crab zoeae export values in saltmarsh areas. In contrast, a reduction of tidal inundation declined the likelihood of the site holding both high blue carbon and crab zoeae export values. The findings highlight the importance of “whole-of-system” approach to assessing the effects of different scenario changes in tidal inundation. Focusing only on one tidal wetland habitat and a single targeted value may affect the structure and functions of other habitat components of the coastal ecosystem mosaic. BBNs are useful tools to summarise preliminary assessments of the potential effects of tidal inundation changes on wetland ecosystems, which may assist managers to make the most informed decision to conserve and restore coastal transitional areas.

Item ID:	87628
Item Type:	Article (Research - C1)
ISSN:	1879-1026
Keywords:	Coastal management; Tidal wetlands; Bayesian Belief Network (BBN); Blue carbon; Intertidal crabs; Wetland vegetation
Copyright Information:	© 2025 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ).
Date Deposited:	01 Sep 2025 21:45
FoR Codes:	41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4104 Environmental management > 410402 Environmental assessment and monitoring @ 50% 41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4104 Environmental management > 410404 Environmental management @ 50%
SEO Codes:	18 ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT > 1802 Coastal and estuarine systems and management > 180201 Assessment and management of coastal and estuarine ecosystems @ 100%
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