Lisovski, Simeon, Hoye, Bethany J., Conklin, Jesse R., Battley, Phil F., Fuller, Richard A., Gosbell, Ken B., Klaassen, Marcel, Benjamin Lee, Chengfa, Murray, Nicholas J., and Bauer, Silke (2024) Predicting resilience of migratory birds to environmental change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 121 (19). e2311146121.

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Abstract

The pace and scale of environmental change represent major challenges to manyorganisms. Animals that move long distances, such as migratory birds, are especiallyvulnerable to change since they need chains of intact habitat along their migratoryroutes. Estimating the resilience of such species to environmental changes assists intargeting conservation efforts. We developed a migration modeling framework to predictpast (1960s), present (2010s), and future (2060s) optimal migration strategies acrossfive shorebird species (Scolopacidae) within the East Asian-Australasian Flyway, whichhas seen major habitat deterioration and loss over the last century, and compared thesepredictions to empirical tracks from the present. Our model captured the migrationstrategies of the five species and identified the changes in migrations needed to respondto habitat deterioration and climate change. Notably, the larger species, with single orfew major stopover sites, need to establish new migration routes and strategies, whilesmaller species can buffer habitat loss by redistributing their stopover areas to novel orless- used sites. Comparing model predictions with empirical tracks also indicates thatlarger species with the stronger need for adaptations continue to migrate closer to theoptimal routes of the past, before habitat deterioration accelerated. Our study not onlyquantifies the vulnerability of species in the face of global change but also explicitlyreveals the extent of adaptations required to sustain their migrations. This modelingframework provides a tool for conservation planning that can accommodate the futureneeds of migratory species.

Item ID:	85887
Item Type:	Article (Research - C1)
ISSN:	1091-6490
Copyright Information:	Copyright © 2024 the Author(s). Published by PNAS. This article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial- NoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND).
Date Deposited:	18 Jun 2025 04:04
FoR Codes:	41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4101 Climate change impacts and adaptation > 410102 Ecological impacts of climate change and ecological adaptation @ 100%
SEO Codes:	28 EXPANDING KNOWLEDGE > 2801 Expanding knowledge > 280111 Expanding knowledge in the environmental sciences @ 100%
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