Quigley, Kate M., and Baird, Andrew H. (2024) Future climate warming threatens coral reef function on World Heritage reefs. Global Change Biology, 30 (7). e17407.

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Abstract

Climate change is the most significant threat to natural World Heritage (WH) sites, especially in the oceans. Warming has devastated marine faunas, including reef corals, kelp, and seagrass. Here, we project future declines in species and ecosystem functions across Australia's four WH coral reef regions. Model simulations estimating species-level abundances and probabilities of ecological persistence were combined with trait space reconstructions at “present,” 2050 (+1.5°C of warming), and 2100 (+2°C) to explore biogeographical overlaps and identify key functional differences and forecast changes in function through time. Future climates varied by region, with Shark Bay projected to warm the most (>1.29°C), followed by Lord Howe, when standardized to marine park size. By 2050, ~40% of the Great Barrier Reef will exceed critical thresholds set by the warmest summer month (mean monthly maximum [MMM]), triggering mortality. Functional diversity was greatest at Ningaloo. At +1.5°C of warming, species and regions varied drastically in their functional responses, declined 20.2% in species richness (~70 extinctions) and lost functions across all reefs. At +2°C, models predicted a complete collapse of functions, consistent with IPCC forecasts. This variability suggests a bespoke management approach is needed for each region and is critical for understanding WH vulnerability to climate change, identifying thresholds, and quantifying uncertainty of impacts. This knowledge will aid in focusing management, policy and conservation actions to direct resources, rapid action, and set biodiversity targets for these reefs of global priority. As reefs reassemble into novel or different configurations, determining the winners and losers of functional space will be critical for meeting global landmark biodiversity goals.

Item ID:	85789
Item Type:	Article (Research - C1)
ISSN:	1365-2486
Copyright Information:	This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made. © 2024 The Author(s). Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Funders:	Australian Research Council (ARC)
Projects and Grants:	ARC DE230100284
Date Deposited:	11 Jun 2025 00:54
FoR Codes:	31 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 3103 Ecology > 310305 Marine and estuarine ecology (incl. marine ichthyology) @ 50% 41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4101 Climate change impacts and adaptation > 410102 Ecological impacts of climate change and ecological adaptation @ 50%
SEO Codes:	18 ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT > 1802 Coastal and estuarine systems and management > 180203 Coastal or estuarine biodiversity @ 50% 19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1901 Adaptation to climate change > 190101 Climate change adaptation measures (excl. ecosystem) @ 50%
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