Howie, Alice H., Reeves, Simon E., Gillies, Chris L., and Bishop, Melanie J. (2024) Integration of social data into restoration suitability modelling for oyster reefs. Ecological Indicators, 158. 111531.

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Abstract

Stakeholder support is critical to the success of ecological restoration projects, and consultation with multiple user groups is increasingly a requirement of permitting agencies. Despite this, participatory mapping remains a “missing layer” in spatial planning of restoration projects. We used site selection for oyster reef restoration in Sydney Harbour as a case study to assess how GIS-based habitat suitability modelling might be adapted to consider not only biophysical data and conflicting estuarine use, but also stakeholder support and engagement. Specifically, we compared the outcomes of suitability modelling that; (1) considered only biophysical parameters that influence habitat suitability for native oyster species; (2) included conflicting estuarine uses to negate social conflict, and habitat connectivity to promote ecological synergies; and (3) incorporated stakeholder perspectives through the integration of participatory mapping. Models that only applied biophysical parameters indicated 43–93% (depending on native oyster species) of Sydney Harbour would be more than moderately suitable for native oyster reef restoration. When conflicting estuarine uses and habitat connectivity were included, this value fell to 11% across native oysters. The inclusion of stakeholder perspectives further reduced suitability to 7%. Our study showed that selecting sites for ecological restoration based solely on biophysical suitability for the target species potentially overestimates the area suitable for restoration and therefore increases the probability of project failure, particularly in sites where stakeholders are not as supportive as anticipated. This study demonstrates how traditional habitat suitability modelling can be enhanced through the inclusion of additional data on human activities and stakeholder support. Importantly, it provides a template by which stakeholders can be engaged early in the restoration project planning process and inspire local communities to play a more active role in restoration activities.

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