Spady, Blake, Skirving, William J., Liu, Gang, De La Cour, Jacqueline L., McDonald, Cathy J., and Manzello, Derek P. (2022) Unprecedented early-summer heat stress and forecast of coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef, 2021-2022. F1000Research, 11 (127).

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Abstract

The Great Barrier Reef (GBR) is predicted to undergo its sixth mass coral bleaching event during the Southern Hemisphere summer of 2021-2022. Coral bleaching-level heat stress over the GBR is forecast to start earlier than any previous year in the satellite record (1985-present). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coral Reef Watch (CRW) near real-time satellite-based heat stress products were used to investigate early-summer sea surface temperature (SST) and heat stress conditions on the GBR during late 2021. As of 14 December 2021, values of instantaneous heat stress (Coral Bleaching HotSpots) and accumulated heat stress over a 12-week running window (Degree Heating Weeks) on the GBR were unprecedented in the satellite record. Further, 89% of GBR satellite reef pixels for this date in 2021 had a positive seven-day SST trend of greater than 0.2 degrees Celsius/week. Background temperatures (the minimum temperature over the previous 29 days) were alarmingly high, with 87% of GBR reef pixels on 14 December 2021 being greater than the maximum SST over that same 29-day period for any year from 1985-2020. The GBR is starting the 2021-2022 summer season with more accumulated heat than ever before, which could have disastrous consequences for the health, recovery, and future of this critical reef system.

Item ID:	81013
Item Type:	Article (Research - C1)
ISSN:	2046-1402
Copyright Information:	© 2022 Spady BL et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Date Deposited:	29 Nov 2023 01:09
FoR Codes:	37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3702 Climate change science > 370202 Climatology @ 33% 37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3708 Oceanography > 370803 Physical oceanography @ 34% 31 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 3103 Ecology > 310305 Marine and estuarine ecology (incl. marine ichthyology) @ 33%
SEO Codes:	19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1905 Understanding climate change > 190501 Climate change models @ 50% 18 ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT > 1805 Marine systems and management > 180599 Marine systems and management not elsewhere classified @ 50%
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