Lv, Lei, van de Pol, Martijn, Osmond, Helen L., Liu, Yang, Cockburn, Andrew, and Kruuk, Loeske E.B. (2023) Winter mortality of a passerine bird increases following hotter summers and during winters with higher maximum temperatures. Science Advances, 9 (1). eabm0197.

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Abstract

Climate change may influence animal population dynamics through reproduction and mortality. However, attributing changes in mortality to specific climate variables is challenging because the exact time of death is usually unknown in the wild. Here, we investigated climate effects on adult mortality in Australian superb fairy-wrens (Malurus cyaneus). Over a 27-year period, mortality outside the breeding season nearly doubled. This nonbreeding season mortality increased with lower minimum (night-time) and higher maximum (day-time) winter temperatures and with higher summer heat wave intensity. Fine-scale analysis showed that higher mortality in a given week was associated with higher maxima 2 weeks prior and lower minima in the current fortnight, indicating costs of temperature drops. Increases in summer heat waves and in winter maximum temperatures collectively explained 62.6% of the increase in mortality over the study period. Our results suggest that warming climate in both summer and winter can adversely affect survival, with potentially substantial population consequences.

Item ID:	77205
Item Type:	Article (Research - C1)
ISSN:	2375-2548
Copyright Information:	Copyright © 2023 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial License 4.0 (CC BY-NC).
Date Deposited:	16 Jan 2023 21:23
FoR Codes:	31 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 3103 Ecology > 310307 Population ecology @ 75% 49 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 4901 Applied mathematics > 490102 Biological mathematics @ 25%
SEO Codes:	19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1905 Understanding climate change > 190504 Effects of climate change on Australia (excl. social impacts) @ 50% 19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1905 Understanding climate change > 190508 Understanding the impact of natural hazards caused by climate change @ 50%
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