Temporal correlations among demographic parameters are ubiquitous but highly variable across species

Fay, Remi, Hamel, Sandra, van de Pol, Martijn, Gaillard, Jean-Michel, Yoccoz, Nigel G., Acker, Paul, Authier, Matthieu, Larue, Benjamin, Le Coeur, Christie, Macdonald, Kaitlin R., Nicol-Harper, Alex, Barbraud, Christophe, Bonenfant, Christophe, Van Vuren, Dirk H., Cam, Emmanuelle, Delord, Karine, Gamelon, Marlene, Moiron, Maria, Pelletier, Fanie, Rotella, Jay, Teplitsky, Celine, Visser, Marcel E., Wells, Caitlin P., Wheelwright, Nathaniel T., Jenouvrier, Stephanie, and Saether, Bernt-Erik (2022) Temporal correlations among demographic parameters are ubiquitous but highly variable across species. Ecology Letters. (In Press)

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Abstract

Temporal correlations among demographic parameters can strongly influence population dynamics. Our empirical knowledge, however, is very limited regarding the direction and the magnitude of these correlations and how they vary among demographic parameters and species’ life histories. Here, we use long-term demographic data from 15 bird and mammal species with contrasting pace of life to quantify correlation patterns among five key demographic parameters: juvenile and adult survival, reproductive probability, reproductive success and productivity. Correlations among demographic parameters were ubiquitous, more frequently positive than negative, but strongly differed across species. Correlations did not markedly change along the slow-fast continuum of life histories, suggesting that they were more strongly driven by ecological than evolutionary factors. As positive temporal demographic correlations decrease the mean of the long-run population growth rate, the common practice of ignoring temporal correlations in population models could lead to the underestimation of extinction risks in most species.

Item ID: 74417
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1461-0248
Keywords: capture-recapture, demographic correlation, demography, environmental stochasticity, slow-fast continuum, stochastic population dynamics, temporal covariation
Copyright Information: © 2022 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Research Data: https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.r2280gbfq
Date Deposited: 08 Jun 2022 09:07
FoR Codes: 31 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 3103 Ecology > 310307 Population ecology @ 50%
31 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 3104 Evolutionary biology > 310408 Life histories @ 50%
SEO Codes: 28 EXPANDING KNOWLEDGE > 2801 Expanding knowledge > 280102 Expanding knowledge in the biological sciences @ 50%
19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1905 Understanding climate change > 190507 Global effects of climate change (excl. Australia, New Zealand, Antarctica and the South Pacific) (excl. social impacts) @ 50%
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