Forecasting intraspecific changes in distribution of a wide-ranging marine predator under climate change

Niella, Yuri, Butcher, Paul, Holmes, Bonnie, Barnett, Adam, and Harcourt, Robert (2021) Forecasting intraspecific changes in distribution of a wide-ranging marine predator under climate change. Oecologia, 198. pp. 111-124.

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Abstract

Globally, marine animal distributions are shifting in response to a changing climate. These shifts are usually considered at the species level, but individuals are likely to differ in how they respond to the changing conditions. Here, we investigate how movement behaviour and, therefore, redistribution, would differ by sex and maturation class in a wide-ranging marine predator. We tracked 115 tiger sharks (Galeocerdo cuvier) from 2002 to 2020 and forecast class-specific distributions through to 2030, including environmental factors and predicted occurrence of potential prey. Generalised Linear and Additive Models revealed that water temperature change, particularly at higher latitudes, was the factor most associated with shark movements. Females dispersed southwards during periods of warming temperatures, and while juvenile females preferred a narrow thermal range between 22 and 23 degrees C, adult female and juvenile male presence was correlated with either lower (< 22 degrees C) or higher (> 23 degrees C) temperatures. During La Nina, sharks moved towards higher latitudes and used shallower isobaths. Inclusion of predicted distribution of their putative prey significantly improved projections of suitable habitats for all shark classes, compared to simpler models using temperature alone. Tiger shark range off the east coast of Australia is predicted to extend similar to 3.5 degrees south towards the east coast of Tasmania, particularly for juvenile males. Our framework highlights the importance of combining long-term movement data with multi-factor habitat projections to identify heterogeneity within species when predicting consequences of climate change. Recognising intraspecific variability will improve conservation and management strategies and help anticipate broader ecosystem consequences of species redistribution due to ocean warming.

Item ID: 72077
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1432-1939
Keywords: animal telemetry, East Australian current, environmental correlates, Galeocerdo cuvier, shark-human interaction, species distribution model, tiger shark
Copyright Information: © The Author(s) 2021, corrected publication 2021. Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Date Deposited: 09 Feb 2022 07:53
FoR Codes: 31 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 3103 Ecology > 310305 Marine and estuarine ecology (incl. marine ichthyology) @ 60%
31 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 3199 Other biological sciences > 319902 Global change biology @ 40%
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