Climatic change drives dynamic source–sink relationships in marine species with high dispersal potential

Silva, Catarina N. S., Young, Emma F., Murphy, Nicholas P., Bell, James J., Green, Bridget S., Morley, Simon A., Duhamel, Guy, Cockcroft, Andrew C., and Strugnell, Jan M. (2021) Climatic change drives dynamic source–sink relationships in marine species with high dispersal potential. Ecology and Evolution. (In Press)

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Abstract

While there is now strong evidence that many factors can shape dispersal, the mechanisms influencing connectivity patterns are species‐specific and remain largely unknown for many species with a high dispersal potential. The rock lobsters Jasus tristani and Jasus paulensis have a long pelagic larval duration (up to 20 months) and inhabit seamounts and islands in the southern Atlantic and Indian Oceans, respectively. We used a multidisciplinary approach to assess the genetic relationships between J. tristani and J. paulensis, investigate historic and contemporary gene flow, and inform fisheries management. Using 17,256 neutral single nucleotide polymorphisms we found low but significant genetic differentiation. We show that patterns of connectivity changed over time in accordance with climatic fluctuations. Historic migration estimates showed stronger connectivity from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean (influenced by the Agulhas Leakage). In contrast, the individual‐based model coupled with contemporary migration estimates inferred from genetic data showed stronger inter‐ocean connectivity in the opposite direction from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean driven by the Subtropical Front. We suggest that the J. tristani and J. paulensis historical distribution might have extended further north (when water temperatures were lower) resulting in larval dispersal between the ocean basis being more influenced by the Agulhas Leakage than the Subtropical Front. As water temperatures in the region increase in accordance with anthropogenic climate change, a southern shift in the distribution range of J. tristani and J. paulensis could further reduce larval transport from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean, adding complexity to fisheries management.

Item ID: 66263
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 2045-7758
Keywords: connectivity; individual-based model; Jasus paulensis; Jasus tristani; lobster; population genetics
Copyright Information: © 2021 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Funders: Australian Research Council, NERC
Projects and Grants: ARC DP150101491, NERC NE/R000107/1
Date Deposited: 24 Feb 2021 03:24
FoR Codes: 31 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 3104 Evolutionary biology > 310406 Evolutionary impacts of climate change @ 50%
31 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 3104 Evolutionary biology > 310412 Speciation and extinction @ 30%
31 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 3105 Genetics > 310599 Genetics not elsewhere classified @ 20%
SEO Codes: 19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1905 Understanding climate change > 190599 Understanding climate change not elsewhere classified @ 100%
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