Modelling the introduction of wolbachia into Aedes aegypti mosquitoes to reduce dengue transmission

Ndii, Meksianis Z., Hickson, Roslyn I., and Mercer, Geoffry N. (2012) Modelling the introduction of wolbachia into Aedes aegypti mosquitoes to reduce dengue transmission. ANZIAM Journal, 53 (3). pp. 213-227.

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Abstract

Infecting Aedes aegypti mosquitoes with the bacteria Wolbachia has been proposed as an innovative new strategy to reduce the transmission of dengue fever. Field trials are currently being undertaken in Queensland, Australia. However, few mathematical models have been developed to consider the persistence of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes in the wild. This paper develops a mathematical model to determine the persistence of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes by considering the competition between Wolbachia-infected and non-Wolbachia mosquitoes. The model has four steady states that are biologically feasible: all mosquitoes dying out, only non-Wolbachia mosquitoes surviving, and two steady states where non-Wolbachia and Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes coexist. The stability of the steady states is determined with respect to the key parameters in the mosquito life cycle. A global sensitivity analysis of the model is also conducted. The results show that the persistence of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes is dominated by the reproductive rate, death rate, maturation rate and maternal transmission. For the parameter values where Wolbachia persists, it dominates the population, and hence the introduction of Wolbachia has great potential to reduce dengue transmission.

Item ID: 64381
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1446-8735
Keywords: Wolbachia; Aedes aegypti; dengue; mathematical model; sensitivity analysis; stability
Copyright Information: © Australian Mathematical Society 2012
Funders: AusAID, Australian National University (ANU), University of Newcastle (UoN)
Projects and Grants: AusAID Australian Development Scholarship, UoN PhD scholarship
Date Deposited: 16 Sep 2020 04:38
FoR Codes: 01 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 0102 Applied Mathematics > 010202 Biological Mathematics @ 60%
11 MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES > 1117 Public Health and Health Services > 111706 Epidemiology @ 40%
SEO Codes: 97 EXPANDING KNOWLEDGE > 970101 Expanding Knowledge in the Mathematical Sciences @ 30%
92 HEALTH > 9204 Public Health (excl. Specific Population Health) > 920404 Disease Distribution and Transmission (incl. Surveillance and Response) @ 70%
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