How population heterogeneity in susceptibility and infectivity influences epidemic dynamics

Hickson, R.I., and Roberts, M.G. (2014) How population heterogeneity in susceptibility and infectivity influences epidemic dynamics. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 350. pp. 70-80.

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Abstract

An important concern in public health is what population group should be prioritised for vaccination. To this end, we present an epidemic model with arbitrary initial distributions for population susceptibility, and corresponding infectivity distributions. We consider four scenarios: first, a population with heterogeneous susceptibility with a uniform distribution, but homogeneous infectivity; second, a heterogeneously susceptible population with linear heterogeneous infectivity functions, where the most susceptible are either the most or least infectious; third, a bimodal distribution for susceptibility, with all combinations of infectivity functions; finally, we consider the effects of additional pre-epidemic immunity, ostensibly through vaccination, on the epidemic dynamics. For a seasonal influenza-like infectious disease, we find the smallest final size and overall number of deaths due to the epidemic to occur if the most susceptible are vaccinated, corresponding to targeting children.

Item ID: 64161
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1095-8541
Copyright Information: © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Date Deposited: 25 Aug 2020 22:27
FoR Codes: 01 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 0102 Applied Mathematics > 010202 Biological Mathematics @ 80%
11 MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES > 1117 Public Health and Health Services > 111706 Epidemiology @ 20%
SEO Codes: 92 HEALTH > 9204 Public Health (excl. Specific Population Health) > 920404 Disease Distribution and Transmission (incl. Surveillance and Response) @ 30%
97 EXPANDING KNOWLEDGE > 970101 Expanding Knowledge in the Mathematical Sciences @ 50%
97 EXPANDING KNOWLEDGE > 970111 Expanding Knowledge in the Medical and Health Sciences @ 20%
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