Water quality mediates resilience on the Great Barrier Reef

MacNeil, M. Aaron, Mellin, Camille, Matthews, Sam, Wolff, Nicholas H., McClanahan, Timothy R., Devlin, Michelle, Drovandi, Christopher, Mengersen, Kerrie, and Graham, Nicholas A.J. (2019) Water quality mediates resilience on the Great Barrier Reef. Nature Ecology & Evolution, 3 (4). pp. 620-627.

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Abstract

Threats from climate change and other human pressures have led to widespread concern for the future of Australia’s Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Resilience of GBR reefs will be determined by their ability to resist disturbances and to recover from coral loss, generating intense interest in management actions that can moderate these processes. Here we quantify the effect of environmental and human drivers on the resilience of southern and central GBR reefs over the past two decades. Using a composite water quality index, we find that while reefs exposed to poor water quality are more resistant to coral bleaching, they recover from disturbance more slowly and are more susceptible to outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish and coral disease—with a net negative impact on recovery and long-term hard coral cover. Given these conditions, we find that 6–17% improvement in water quality will be necessary to bring recovery rates in line with projected increases in coral bleaching among contemporary inshore and mid-shelf reefs. However, such reductions are unlikely to buffer projected bleaching effects among outer-shelf GBR reefs dominated by fast-growing, thermally sensitive corals, demonstrating practical limits to local management of the GBR against the effects of global warming.

Item ID: 61859
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 2397-334X
Copyright Information: © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
Additional Information:

This article is available Open Access via the publisher's website.

Funders: Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council, Canada, Australian Research Council Discovery Project (ARC-DP), Royal Society University Research Fellowship (RSURF)
Projects and Grants: ARC-DP No. DE140100701, ARC-DP No. No. DE160100741, RSURF No. UF140691
Date Deposited: 19 Apr 2020 22:49
FoR Codes: 05 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 0502 Environmental Science and Management > 050205 Environmental Management @ 100%
SEO Codes: 96 ENVIRONMENT > 9611 Physical and Chemical Conditions of Water > 961102 Physical and Chemical Conditions of Water in Coastal and Estuarine Environments @ 100%
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