Mills, Morena, Leon, Javier X., Saunders, Megan I., Bell, Justine, Liu, Yan, O'Mara, Julian, Lovelock, Catherine E., Mumby, Peter J., Phinn, Stuart, Possingham, Hugh P., Tulloch, Vivitskaia J.D., Mutafoglu, Konar, Morrison, Tiffany, Callaghan, David P., Baldock, Tom, Klein, Carissa J., and Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove (2016) Reconciling development and conservation under coastal squeeze from rising sea level. Conservation Letters, 9 (5). pp. 361-368.

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Abstract

Among the biggest global challenges for policymakers is the development of land use policies robust to climate change impacts. While diverse fields can inform adaptation, integrated social-ecological assessment of the multiple adaptation options are rare and cannot be easily applied. Here, we build on past studies by undertaking an integrated fine scale and strategic allocation of sea level rise (SLR) adaptation options that can direct policy making. We use models of probabilistic SLR inundation, urban growth, and sub- and intertidal ecosystem migration, to investigate the impacts of different SLR adaptation strategies, and how these can be allocated to best achieve both development and conservation goals. Coastal adaptation will involve trade-offs among development and conservation objectives and these will vary based on the extent to which sea levels rise. There will be trade-offs between conservation objectives regardless of the adaptation options chosen, however, retreat does provide opportunities for enabling the expansion of coastal ecosystems inland. Local governments can save billions of dollars and minimize political conflict between conservation and development goals through integrated strategic spatial planning. Our planning approach both informs policy and is transferable to other coastal regions faced with a rising sea.

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