Assessing and reducing vulnerability to climate change: moving from theory to practical decision-support

Johnson, Johanna E., Welch, David J., Maynard, Jeffrey A., Bell, Johann D., Pecl, Gretta, Robins, Julie, and Saunders, Thor (2016) Assessing and reducing vulnerability to climate change: moving from theory to practical decision-support. Marine Policy, 74. pp. 220-229.

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Abstract

As climate change continues to impact socio-ecological systems, tools that assist conservation managers to understand vulnerability and target adaptations are essential. Quantitative assessments of vulnerability are rare because available frameworks are complex and lack guidance for dealing with data limitations and integrating across scales and disciplines. This paper describes a semi-quantitative method for assessing vulnerability to climate change that integrates socio-ecological factors to address management objectives and support decision making. The method applies a framework first adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and uses a structured 10-step process. The scores for each framework element are normalized and multiplied to produce a vulnerability score and then the assessed components are ranked from high to low vulnerability. Sensitivity analyses determine which indicators most influence the analysis and the resultant decision-making process so data quality for these indicators can be reviewed to increase robustness. Prioritisation of components for conservation considers other economic, social and cultural values with vulnerability rankings to target actions that reduce vulnerability to climate change by decreasing exposure or sensitivity and/or increasing adaptive capacity. This framework provides practical decision-support and has been applied to marine ecosystems and fisheries, with two case applications provided as examples: (1) food security in Pacific Island nations under climate-driven fish declines, and (2) fisheries in the Gulf of Carpentaria, northern Australia. The step-wise process outlined here is broadly applicable and can be undertaken with minimal resources using existing data, thereby having great potential to inform adaptive natural resource management in diverse locations.

Item ID: 47089
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1872-9460
Keywords: climate vulnerability, assessment framework, climate adaptation, socio-ecological systems, decision support
Funders: Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Secretariat of the Pacific Communitiy, Australian Aid program (AusAid), Australian Fisheries Management Authority, Protected Zone Joint Authority, Fisheries Research and Development Corporation (FRDC), Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, European Research Council (ERC), Australian Research Council (ARC)
Projects and Grants: FRDC grant 2013/0014
Date Deposited: 18 Jan 2017 07:40
FoR Codes: 07 AGRICULTURAL AND VETERINARY SCIENCES > 0704 Fisheries Sciences > 070403 Fisheries Management @ 30%
05 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 0501 Ecological Applications > 050101 Ecological Impacts of Climate Change @ 70%
SEO Codes: 83 ANIMAL PRODUCTION AND ANIMAL PRIMARY PRODUCTS > 8302 Fisheries - Wild Caught > 830201 Fisheries Recreational @ 30%
96 ENVIRONMENT > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960305 Ecosystem Adaptation to Climate Change @ 70%
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