Australian tropical cyclone activity lower than at any time over the past 550-1,500 years

Haig, Jordahna, Nott, Jonathan, and Reichart, Gert-Jan (2014) Australian tropical cyclone activity lower than at any time over the past 550-1,500 years. Nature, 505 (7485). pp. 667-672.

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Abstract

The assessment of changes in tropical cyclone activity within the context of anthropogenically influenced climate change has been limited by the short temporal resolution of the instrumental tropical cyclone record(1,2) (less than 50 years). Furthermore, controversy exists regarding the robustness of the observational record, especially before 1990(3-5). Here we show, on the basis of a new tropical cyclone activity index (CAI), that the present low levels of storm activity on the mid west and northeast coasts of Australia are unprecedented over the past 550 to 1,500 years. The CAI allows for a direct comparison between the modern instrumental record and long-term palaeotempest (prehistoric tropical cyclone) records derived from the O-18/O-16 ratio of seasonally accreting carbonate layers of actively growing stalagmites. Our results reveal a repeated multicentennial cycle of tropical cyclone activity, the most recent of which commenced around AD 1700. The present cycle includes a sharp decrease in activity after 1960 in Western Australia. This is in contrast to the increasing frequency and destructiveness of Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclones since 1970 in the Atlantic Ocean(6-8) and the western North Pacific Ocean(6,7). Other studies project a decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones towards the end of the twenty-first century in the southwest Pacific(7,9), southern Indian(9,10) and Australian(11) regions. Our results, although based on a limited record, suggest that this may be occurring much earlier than expected.

Item ID: 31790
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 0028-0836
Keywords: palaeoclimate, climate change, atmospheric science
Date Deposited: 26 Feb 2014 09:52
FoR Codes: 04 EARTH SCIENCES > 0406 Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience > 040606 Quaternary Environments @ 100%
SEO Codes: 96 ENVIRONMENT > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960307 Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Australia (excl. Social Impacts) @ 100%
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