Hughes, Terry P., Carpenter, Stephen, Rockström, Johan, Scheffer, Marten, and Walker, Brian (2013) Multiscale regime shifts and planetary boundaries. Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 28 (7). pp. 389-395.

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Abstract

Life on Earth has repeatedly displayed abrupt and massive changes in the past, and there is no reason to expect that comparable planetary-scale regime shifts will not continue in the future. Different lines of evidence indicate that regime shifts occur when the climate or biosphere transgresses a tipping point. Whether human activities will trigger such a global event in the near future is uncertain, due to critical knowledge gaps. In particular, we lack understanding of how regime shifts propagate across scales, and whether local or regional tipping points can lead to global transitions. The ongoing disruption of ecosystems and climate, combined with unprecedented breakdown of isolation by human migration and trade, highlights the need to operate within safe planetary boundaries.

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