Detecting and assessing outbreaks

Harvell, C.D., Woodley, C., Raymundo, L., and Sato, Y. (2008) Detecting and assessing outbreaks. In: Raymundo, Laurie J., Couch, Courtney S., and Harvell, C. Drew, (eds.) Coral Disease Handbook: guidelines for assessment monitoring and management. Coral Reef Targeted Research and Capacity Building for Management Program, pp. 65-74.

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Abstract

[Extract] An infectious disease outbreak is defined as a situation whereby the rate at which new hosts become infected increases. In other words, it is an unexpected increase in disease or mortality where it does not normally occur, or is at a frequency greater than previously observed. In Figure 5.1, we provide an example of outbreak dynamics for human diseases. As demonstrated in this graph, once the infected host population reaches a critical size, the number of new cases increases exponentially. As more individuals within a population are exposed to the disease, the number of new cases eventually declines, either through host recovery and immunity or death. The disease then becomes a long-term aspect of the population dynamics, becoming endemic and either reaching equilibrium with few occasional cases, or undergoing periodic outbreaks.

Item ID: 27651
Item Type: Book Chapter (Research - B1)
ISBN: 978-1-9213-17-01-9
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Date Deposited: 13 Jun 2013 04:56
FoR Codes: 06 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 0602 Ecology > 060205 Marine and Estuarine Ecology (incl Marine Ichthyology) @ 50%
07 AGRICULTURAL AND VETERINARY SCIENCES > 0707 Veterinary Sciences > 070704 Veterinary Epidemiology @ 50%
SEO Codes: 96 ENVIRONMENT > 9608 Flora, Fauna and Biodiversity > 960808 Marine Flora, Fauna and Biodiversity @ 100%
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