Uncertainties in predicting the demographic impact of AIDS

Kault, David (2000) Uncertainties in predicting the demographic impact of AIDS. Theoretical Population Biology, 57 (4). pp. 309-324.

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A model giving the demographic impact of AIDS is analysed to examine the sensitivity of the projections when various complicating features are included. The model deals with age and sexual partner change rate as continuous variables and uses a device to specify arbitrary correlations between the ages of the people who form sexual partnerships. The device ensures consistency, in that the amount of partner formation is the same regardless of whether the partnerships are counted from the point of view of males or females. Arbitrary correlation between partner change rate and fertility is also permitted. The results show the uncertainty in model predictions that population growth will reduce over the next 20 years to approximately zero in parts of East Africa severely affected by the AIDS epidemic. The main sources of uncertainty in the model predictions are assumptions concerning the correlation between ages in a partnership, the correlation between partner change rate and fertility, the incubation period of AIDS, and the variability of the female partner change rate.

Item ID: 13037
Item Type: Article (Research - C1)
ISSN: 1096-0325
Keywords: AIDS; sexual partner change rate
Date Deposited: 26 Jul 2012 04:09
FoR Codes: 11 MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES > 1103 Clinical Sciences > 110309 Infectious Diseases @ 51%
01 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 0102 Applied Mathematics > 010202 Biological Mathematics @ 49%
SEO Codes: 92 HEALTH > 9201 Clinical Health (Organs, Diseases and Abnormal Conditions) > 920109 Infectious Diseases @ 51%
97 EXPANDING KNOWLEDGE > 970101 Expanding Knowledge in the Mathematical Sciences @ 49%
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