The gross state product and an econometric model of the state of Queensland

Crossman, Peter John (1981) The gross state product and an econometric model of the state of Queensland. PhD thesis, James Cook University.

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Abstract

With regard to the economic features of the Australian federation, it is becoming evident that two matters will stimulate increasing investigation and analysis over the next decade. The first of these matters is the study of the economic performance of the individual states, given the move towards greater autonomy of the states in many functional areas and greater reliance on their own sources of revenue. The second of these matters is the study of the interactions between the economies of the nation and the individual states, particularly the impact of federal government decisions on the states. This thesis is a contribution to the first of these developments, and seeks to make a contribution to the regionally disaggregated view of macro-econometrics, in the context of Australia.

This thesis has the objective of determining answers to two questions. Firstly, using existing data sources, both published and unpublished, is it possible to construct a reasonably accurate and disaggregated set of estimates of gross state product for Queensland? Secondly, is it then possible to construct a macro-econometric type regional econometric model of the State of Queensland, using these gross product estimates?

The first question has been answered in this thesis by developing a set of quarterly estimates of the gross state product at factor cost of Queensland, for forty quarters from September 1969 to June 1979, disaggregated by ASIC industry division and by principal component, using payroll tax tabulations as the basic data source. The method of estimation is an improvement over other recent gross state product estimation, both in Australia and overseas.

Since much state economic data are available only on an annual basis, a method of interpolating quarterly values from annual values of economic series was chosen and improved. The second question was then answered by specifying a quarterly regional econometric model for Queensland based, as much as possible, on the general specification of Klein (1969). This model was then estimated by ordinary least squares and two stage least squares with principal components, and a number of exploratory dynamic simulations were performed.

Item ID: 12176
Item Type: Thesis (PhD)
Keywords: gross state product, econometric models, Queensland, regional econometrics, macro-econometrics, quarterly estimates, estimation, validation, simulation, aggregate economic analysis
Additional Information:

Peter Crossman received a JCU Outstanding Alumni Award in 2010.

Date Deposited: 02 Nov 2010 04:56
FoR Codes: 14 ECONOMICS > 1402 Applied Economics > 140218 Urban and Regional Economics @ 20%
14 ECONOMICS > 1403 Econometrics > 140303 Economic Models and Forecasting @ 40%
14 ECONOMICS > 1403 Econometrics > 140302 Econometric and Statistical Methods @ 40%
SEO Codes: 91 ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK > 9101 Macroeconomics > 910199 Macroeconomics not elsewhere classified @ 50%
97 EXPANDING KNOWLEDGE > 970114 Expanding Knowledge in Economics @ 50%
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