An exploratory investigation of the relationship between decadal rainfall and climate indices

Jaffrés, J., and Everingham, Y. (2005) An exploratory investigation of the relationship between decadal rainfall and climate indices. In: Proceedings of the 2005 Conference of the Australian Society of Sugar Cane Technologists (27) pp. 96-108. From: 27th Annual Conference Australian Society of Sugar Cane Technologists, 3-6 May 2005, Bundaberg, QLD, Australia.

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This study presents an exploratory investigation to assess if long-term variations in sea surface temperature (SST) and mean sea level pressure (MSLP) are related to decadal rainfall. Improved knowledge of decadal rainfall would assist with decision making in the sugar industry, e.g. it could help in deciding whether to purchase a wet- or dry-weather harvester, and which cane variety to plant. To investigate the correlation between rainfall and the ocean-atmospheric indices, 10-yearly running averages for June-November (relating to harvester choice) and January-December (in connection with which variety to plant) rainfall for the Tully (North Queensland), Plane Creek (Central Eastern Queensland) and Harwood Sugar Mills (Northern NSW) were used as well as five indices derived from SST and MSLP data. A strong relationship between decadal rainfall and these indices was uncovered. It is recommended, however, that further research be conducted to identify if this relationship is simply a statistical artefact, or if improved knowledge of the physical phenomena underpinning the statistical relationships can be uncovered.

Item ID: 9663
Item Type: Conference Item (Research - E1)
ISSN: 0726-0822
Keywords: decadal rainfall; oceanic-atmospheric indices; IPO; long-lead rainfall forecasting; SST
Date Deposited: 25 Mar 2010 01:33
FoR Codes: 01 MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES > 0104 Statistics > 010401 Applied Statistics @ 35%
04 EARTH SCIENCES > 0401 Atmospheric Sciences > 040105 Climatology (excl Climate Change Processes) @ 35%
07 AGRICULTURAL AND VETERINARY SCIENCES > 0701 Agriculture, Land and Farm Management > 070105 Agricultural Systems Analysis and Modelling @ 30%
SEO Codes: 96 ENVIRONMENT > 9603 Climate and Climate Change > 960304 Climate Variability (excl. Social Impacts) @ 50%
82 PLANT PRODUCTION AND PLANT PRIMARY PRODUCTS > 8203 Industrial Crops > 820304 Sugar @ 50%
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