Williams, Alan N., Tobler, Raymond, Griffiths, Billy, Ulm, Sean, Nitschke, Matthew, Bird, Michael I., Ingrey, Shane, Saltre, Frederik, Beller, Kirsty, Mcniven, Ian J., Pitt, Nicholas, Russell, Lynette, Paterson, Alistair, Wilson, Christopher, and Bradshaw, Corey J.A. (2026) Large estimated size of the Australian Indigenous population before its extensive decline following colonial invasion. Nature Human Behaviour. (In Press)

PDF (Author Accepted Version) - Accepted Version Restricted to Repository staff only until 16 March 2027.

Abstract

Estimating the size of Indigenous populations in Australia before European colonial invasion is invaluable to truth-telling and reconciliation. Robust estimates of the population dynamics of pre-colonial Indigenous Australians are poor owing to lethal diseases, frontier and structural violence, and absence of systematic censuses. Here we review ethnographic observations, archaeological and genetic reconstructions, and modelled carrying capacity to infer Indigenous population size before colonial invasion. Congruency of the modelled and genetics-based (not historical or ethnographic accounts) estimates suggests a bootstrapped pre-colonial median of 2.22 million, or 0.29 people km−2. This allows an estimate of the number of excess deaths in the post-colonial era. For a median pre-colonial population of 2.22 million, ~28,200 excess deaths per year (2.06 million deaths in total) would have had to occur over the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries from colonial invasion-related mortality to align with census records. These estimates speak to how the aftermath of invasion was experienced by Indigenous Australians, and recent census records show their survival and recovery since. We warn readers that the content of this study is confronting and possibly distressing.

Item ID:	94045
Item Type:	Article (Research - C1)
ISSN:	2397-3374
Keywords:	population reconstruction; invasion; mass mortality; massacre; disease; frontier violence; structural violence
Copyright Information:	Published Version: © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2026. AAM may be made open access in an Institutional Repository after a six month embargo.
Funders:	Australian Research Council (ARC)
Projects and Grants:	ARC Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures (CE230100009)
Date Deposited:	17 Sep 2026 03:51
FoR Codes:	45 INDIGENOUS STUDIES > 4501 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander culture, language and history > 450101 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander archaeology @ 50% 45 INDIGENOUS STUDIES > 4501 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander culture, language and history > 450107 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander history @ 50%
SEO Codes:	21 INDIGENOUS > 2104 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander heritage and culture > 210402 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander connection to land and environment @ 50% 13 CULTURE AND SOCIETY > 1307 Understanding past societies > 130703 Understanding Australia’s past @ 50%
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