Bradshaw, Corey, Williams, Alan, Russell, Lynette, Ulm, Sean, and Ingrey, Shane (2026) More than 2 million Indigenous people lived in Australia in 1788: New research. The Conversation, 15 September 2026.

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Abstract

More than two million Indigenous people probably lived in Australia at the time of the British invasion in 1788, according to new research based on genetic, archaeological and environmental evidence.

This figure is much larger than the estimate of 300,000 which has shaped public understanding for the past century. The old estimate, published by anthropologist Alfred Reginald Radcliffe-Brown in 1930, was based largely on observations made after disease, dispossession and violence had already devastated Indigenous communities.

Using three methods that do not depend on colonial-era headcounts, we calculated a median population of 2.22 million people in 1788, with a likely range roughly between 1 and 4 million.

The new figure also implies that over 90% of the Indigenous population died in the 70 years after the invasion. It is not simply a revision to a historical statistic. It changes the scale at which Australians must understand terra nullius, and subsequent invasion, survival and recovery.

Item ID:	94044
Item Type:	Article (Commentary)
ISSN:	2201-5639
Keywords:	population reconstruction; invasion; mass death; epidemics; frontier violence; structural violence
Related URLs:	https://theconversation.com/more-than-2-...
Copyright Information:	Copyright © 2010–2026, The Conversation Media Group Ltd. We believe in the free flow of information and so publish under a Creative Commons — Attribution/No derivatives licence.
Funders:	Australian Research Council (ARC)
Projects and Grants:	ARC Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures (CE230100009)
Date Deposited:	17 Sep 2026 01:53
FoR Codes:	45 INDIGENOUS STUDIES > 4501 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander culture, language and history > 450101 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander archaeology @ 50% 45 INDIGENOUS STUDIES > 4501 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander culture, language and history > 450107 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander history @ 50%
SEO Codes:	21 INDIGENOUS > 2104 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander heritage and culture > 210402 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander connection to land and environment @ 50% 13 CULTURE AND SOCIETY > 1307 Understanding past societies > 130703 Understanding Australia’s past @ 50%
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