Bradshaw, Corey, Russell, Lynette, Nitschke, Matthew, Ulm, Sean, and Ingrey, Shane (2026) Sydney’s 1789 smallpox epidemic came from the First Fleet and killed up to 220,000 Indigenous Australians: New research. The Conversation, 10 July 2026.

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Abstract

[Extract] In April 1789, the first smallpox epidemic among Aboriginal people in the Sydney region began, just 16 months after Europeans arrived on the First Fleet.

Little is known of the true scale of the epidemic, and historians have sometimes argued it was not caused by the newcomers.

In new research published in Nature Human Behaviour, we used modelling of smallpox transmission and the connections between Indigenous societies to understand how it could have spread.

The results strongly suggest the disease did come from the British outpost. What’s more, it might have spread thousands of kilometres north and west, lasting decades and killing as many as 220,000 Aboriginal people.

Item ID:	92622
Item Type:	Article (Commentary)
ISSN:	2201-5639
Copyright Information:	© 2026 The authors. Creative Commons — Attribution/No Derivatives.
Funders:	Australian Research Council (ARC)
Projects and Grants:	ARC Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures (CE230100009)
Date Deposited:	10 Jul 2026 06:36
FoR Codes:	45 INDIGENOUS STUDIES > 4501 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander culture, language and history > 450101 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander archaeology @ 50% 45 INDIGENOUS STUDIES > 4501 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander culture, language and history > 450107 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander history @ 50%
SEO Codes:	21 INDIGENOUS > 2104 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander heritage and culture > 210402 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander connection to land and environment @ 50% 13 CULTURE AND SOCIETY > 1307 Understanding past societies > 130703 Understanding Australia’s past @ 50%
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