Hearn, Timothy J., and Whitmore, David (2025) An Abrupt Mid-1970s Shift in UK Birth Seasonality and Its Implications for Chronobiological Studies. Journal of Biological Rhythms, 41 (1). pp. 28-41.

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Abstract

We present a comprehensive analysis of the historical fluctuations and rephasing of seasonal birth rates in the United Kingdom from 1955 to 2015. We analyzed monthly live-birth records for England and Wales together with national photoperiod and surface-temperature series to track the annual rhythm of human reproduction. Fast Fourier transforms confirmed a robust 12-month component across the entire record, but breakpoint tests located a sharp phase shift in 1974-1976. Before this transition, peak conceptions clustered tightly around the summer solstice and yielded a stable March birth maximum. After 1976, the rhythm decoupled: the spring peak in births collapsed, a secondary autumn peak emerged, and inter-annual phase variability more than doubled. Cross-correlation analyses showed that, up to 1974, photoperiod led birth counts by ≈11 months whereas temperature played only a minor role. Post 1976, photoperiod correlations disappeared and a weaker, inverse link with temperature persisted. Sliding-window statistics indicate that variability has narrowed again since the mid-1990s, hinting at partial re-stabilization of the seasonal pattern, now centered in late autumn conceptions. These results demonstrate that the mid-1970s marked a singular disruption of the United Kingdom’s reproductive calendar, coincident with the nationwide roll-out of freely available hormonal contraception and other social shifts. The findings urge caution when pooling pre- and post-1974 cohorts in genetic or epidemiological studies—such as those using UK Biobank—to explore season-of-birth effects. More broadly, they highlight the plasticity of human annual timing and the need to disentangle biological from socio-environmental drivers of reproduction.

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