Muecke, Holly, Smithers, Scott, Duce, Stephanie, Hamylton, Sarah, and Lazarus, Emily (2025) Effects of tropical cyclone Jasper at Low Island, northern Great Barrier Reef. Cambridge Prisms: Coastal Futures, 3. e27.

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Abstract

Tropical cyclones (TC) can produce waves and water levels that markedly reshape sand cay shorelines. TC Jasper (December 2023) passed near Low Island (Low Isles, Northern Great Barrier Reef [GBF]) as a category 2 storm. Using a combination of remote sensing and ground surveys, we compare detailed, high-resolution digital terrain models created before and after TC Jasper to quantify sediment redistribution around the cay during and after the event. During TC Jasper, net transport of 8,870 m3 occurred to elongate the spits at the eastern and western ends of the cay, but the sediment volume of the cay did not significantly change. Following TC Jasper, the shoreline at Low Island returned to its modal seasonal state within six months. This accords with historical accounts of seasonal shifts in shoreline configuration driven by prevailing wind and wave regimes, as well as the relatively rapid readjustment to a modal form following episodic extreme events. Overall, the documented changes to Low Island following cyclonic events highlight the complex interplay between episodic disturbances and longer-term geomorphic stability, emphasising the importance of ongoing research into these interactions as higher-intensity cyclones increase in frequency due to climate change.

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