Tu, Addison, Zahirovic, Sabin, Polanco, Sara, Boone, Samuel C., Boyd, Matt, Mallard, Claire, Restrepo, Pedro, Ibrahim, Youseph, Mahoney, Luke, Salles, Tristan, McInnes, Brent, Farahbakhsh, Ehsan, Kohlmann, Fabian, Seton, Maria, and Müller, Dietmar R. (2025) Predicting the preservation of buried ore deposits using deep-time landscape evolution modeling. Science Advances, 11 (48).

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Abstract

Porphyry copper discoveries are declining despite rising demand to meet net-zero targets, highlighting the need for innovative exploration strategies. While many advances have focused on ore formation at depth, a major challenge remains in understanding how erosion and uplift over millions of years affect deposit preservation. These postmineralization processes determine whether porphyry systems are exposed, buried, or eroded entirely. We present a physically based landscape evolution model that incorporates spatially variable erodibility, dynamic uplift histories, climate and sea level change, and evolving topography over geological timescales. This richer input data, combined with tighter calibration, enables quantification of preservation potential and marks a step beyond prior conceptual and time-static models. We apply the model to New Guinea’s geologically complex mountains and integrate it with machine learning–derived ore formation probabilities. The combined model predicts known porphyry endowment, identifies new targets, and constrains preservation likelihood, validating this open-source method as a flexible and affordable exploration tool in dynamic tectonic settings.

Item ID:	89732
Item Type:	Article (Research - C1)
ISSN:	2375-2548
Copyright Information:	copyright © 2025 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. Distributed under a creative commons Attribution Noncommercial license 4.0 (CC BY-NC).
Funders:	Australian Research Council (ARC)
Projects and Grants:	ARC LP210100173, ARC DE210100084
Date Deposited:	16 Dec 2025 21:55
FoR Codes:	37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3705 Geology > 370508 Resource geoscience @ 50% 37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3705 Geology > 370509 Sedimentology @ 50%
SEO Codes:	25 MINERAL RESOURCES (EXCL. ENERGY RESOURCES) > 2503 Mineral exploration > 250302 Copper ore exploration @ 100%
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