Climate Change Is Expected to Expand Malaria Transmission Range and Population at Risk in Papua New Guinea
Karl, S., Skinner, E. B., McEwen, S., Keven, J., Kisomb, J., Robinson, L. J., and Laman, M. (2025) Climate Change Is Expected to Expand Malaria Transmission Range and Population at Risk in Papua New Guinea. Geohealth, 9 (10). e2025GH001541.
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Abstract
Warming temperatures are expanding the potential for malaria transmission into higher altitudes, with important implications for malaria control planning. In Papua New Guinea (PNG), malaria is widespread in lowland areas but rarely transmitted above 1,600 m. This study assessed changes in malaria transmission suitability across PNG from 1960 to 2019 and projected shifts through 2040, using satellite-derived temperature data and climate models. We applied a temperature-dependent basic reproduction number (R<inf>0</inf>) to identify shifts in geographic suitability, estimate the population at risk, and evaluate the effectiveness of interventions. Malaria temperature suitability ranges have subtly changed between 1960 and 2019, with the proportion of people living in suitable areas increasing from 58% to 61% (equivalent to an additional 249,125 people). Under a conservative climate change model, this proportion is expected increase to 74% by 2040 (equivalent to an additional 2,802,709 people). Interventions had a larger impact on malaria incidence in areas with R<inf>0</inf> < 0.3, mitigating the current and future impact of climate change. Nevertheless, the number of people requiring access to malaria control is expected to double by 2040, to 13.4 million with 2.8 million attributed to climate change alone. The impacted areas are densely populated highlands regions with a more susceptible population and an increased potential for epidemics and clinical disease. These findings underscore the challenges of climate change for malaria elimination in PNG and highlight the need to accurately guide preparedness and forecast the additional resource requirements.
| Item ID: | 89215 |
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| Item Type: | Article (Research - C1) |
| ISSN: | 2471-1403 |
| Keywords: | climate change, malaria, Papua New Guinea |
| Copyright Information: | © 2025 The Author(s). GeoHealth published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
| Date Deposited: | 15 Jul 2026 05:02 |
| FoR Codes: | 42 HEALTH SCIENCES > 4202 Epidemiology > 420207 Major global burdens of disease @ 100% |
| SEO Codes: | 20 HEALTH > 2004 Public health (excl. specific population health) > 200404 Disease distribution and transmission (incl. surveillance and response) @ 100% |
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