Modeling Intervention Strategies to Control Hepatitis C Outbreak and Related Mortality in Bangladesh
Kuddus, Md Abdul, Tithi, Sazia Khatun, and Sarker, Subir (2025) Modeling Intervention Strategies to Control Hepatitis C Outbreak and Related Mortality in Bangladesh. Mathematics, 13 (18). 3009.
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Abstract
Hepatitis C virus (HCV) remains a critical public health concern globally, including in Bangladesh. In this study, we employed a mathematical modeling framework to analyze the national dynamics of HCV infections and associated mortality in Bangladesh. Utilizing surveillance data from the Directorate General of Health Services, we examined the epidemiological trajectory of HCV and assessed the impact of various intervention strategies. The Next Generation Matrix approach was employed to derive basic reproduction numbers, and the model was calibrated with observed HCV incidence data to estimate some model parameter values. We conducted sensitivity analysis to assess how variations in model parameters affect HCV prevalence, revealing that transmission rates of both drug-susceptible and drug-resistant strains have the greatest impact. Additionally, bifurcation analysis was performed to examine parameter thresholds and assess the stability of the system. We then used the model to estimate the impacts of various intervention policies on reducing HCV cases and deaths. Among single interventions, increased effective treatment for drug-susceptible cases proved to be the most rapid and effective strategy for reducing the total number of both drug-susceptible and drug-resistant HCV cases, as well as mortality. Additionally, our results imply that combining interventions increases their overall effectiveness, achieving substantial reductions in cases and deaths with relatively modest investment. However, complete eradication of HCV in Bangladesh would require significantly greater resources.
| Item ID: | 89167 |
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| Item Type: | Article (Research - C1) |
| ISSN: | 2227-7390 |
| Keywords: | Bangladesh, Hepatitis C virus, interventions, mathematical modeling, sensitivity and bifurcation analysis |
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| Copyright Information: | © 2025 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
| Date Deposited: | 21 Oct 2025 02:56 |
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