Lockie, Stewart, Graham, Victoria, Taylor, Bruce, Baresi, Umberto, Maclean, Kirsten, Paxton, Gillian, and Vella, Karen (2025) Conceptualizing social risk in relation to climate change and assisted ecosystem adaptation. Risk Analysis, 45 (3). pp. 668-681.

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Abstract

Realizing positive social and environmental outcomes from assisted ecosystem adaptation requires the management of complex, uncertain, and ambiguous risks. Using assisted coral reef adaptation as a case study, this article presents a conceptual framework that defines social impacts as the physical and cognitive consequences for people of planned intervention and social risks as potential impacts transformed into objects of management through assessment and governance. Reflecting on its multiple uses in the literature, we consider “social risk” in relation to risks to individuals and communities, risks to First Peoples, risks to businesses or project implementation, possibilities for amplified social vulnerability, and risk perceptions. Although much of this article is devoted to bringing clarity to the different ways in which social risk manifests and to the multiple characters of risk and uncertainty, it is apparent that risk governance itself must be an inherently integrative and social process.

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