Guerra, Angélica, Resende, Fernando, Bergier, Ivan, Fairbrass, Alison, Bernardino, Cássio, Centurião, Daniel Amorim Souza, Bolzan, Fábio, Marcel, Guellity, Rosa, Isabel M.D., da Silva, Julio Cesar Sampaio, Garcia, Letícia Couto, Larcher, Letícia, de Oliveira, Paulo Tarso Sanches, Chiaravalloti, Rafael Morais, Roscoe, Renato, Louzada, Rômullo, Santos, Sandra, Tomas, Walfrido Moraes, Nunes, André Valle, and de Oliveira Roque, Fabio (2025) Land use and regulating ecosystem services scenarios for the Brazilian Pantanal and its surroundings under different storylines of future regional development. Conservation Science and Practice, 7 (7). e70012.

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Abstract

The Pantanal, the largest worldwide continuous wetland, is considered a global hotspot of ecosystem services. Based on process-based modeling, we assessed plausible scenarios of land use for the Brazilian Pantanal wetland and its surrounding highlands by the year 2050. The simulations indicate likely trajectories of land-use change and the corresponding consequences for ecosystem services by looking specifically at soil loss, sediment yield, water quality, and carbon storage. The “Economy based on sustainable principles” scenario, in which landowners maintain native vegetation above Brazilian law requirements can lead to large reductions in soil losses and sediment yield (45%), whereas an increase in nutrients retention efficiency of soils (2%) and above-ground carbon storage (7%) compared to the reference scenario of “Business as usual” (BAU). On the other hand, the scenario of “Accelerating anthropogenic changes” might lead to an increase in soil losses (8%) and sediment yield (11%), with a reduction in the efficiency of soil nutrients retention (3%) and carbon storage (15%). This study illustrates that the enhanced awareness of future potential impacts can pave the way for less harmful decisions in the mid-term, toward the adoption of suitable strategies aligned with sustainable practices. Based on this, we discussed several initiatives that demonstrate the feasibility of moving toward most collective desirable scenarios.

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