Abram, Nerilie J., Purich, Ariaan, England, Matthew H., McCormack, Felicity S., Strugnell, Jan M., Bergstrom, Dana M., Vance, Tessa R., Stål, Tobias, Wienecke, Barbara, Heil, Petra, Doddridge, Edward W., Sallée, Jean Baptiste, Williams, Thomas J., Reading, Anya M., Mackintosh, Andrew, Reese, Ronja, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Klose, Ann Kristin, Boyd, Philip W., Chown, Steven L., and Robinson, Sharon A. (2025) Emerging evidence of abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment. Nature, 644 (8077). pp. 621-633.

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Abstract

Human-caused climate change worsens with every increment of additional warming, although some impacts can develop abruptly. The potential for abrupt changes is far less understood in the Antarctic compared with the Arctic, but evidence is emerging for rapid, interacting and sometimes self-perpetuating changes in the Antarctic environment. A regime shift has reduced Antarctic sea-ice extent far below its natural variability of past centuries, and in some respects is more abrupt, non-linear and potentially irreversible than Arctic sea-ice loss. A marked slowdown in Antarctic Overturning Circulation is expected to intensify this century and may be faster than the anticipated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown. The tipping point for unstoppable ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could be exceeded even under best-case CO<inf>2</inf> emission reduction pathways, potentially initiating global tipping cascades. Regime shifts are occurring in Antarctic and Southern Ocean biological systems through habitat transformation or exceedance of physiological thresholds, and compounding breeding failures are increasing extinction risk. Amplifying feedbacks are common between these abrupt changes in the Antarctic environment, and stabilizing Earth’s climate with minimal overshoot of 1.5 °C will be imperative alongside global adaptation measures to minimise and prepare for the far-reaching impacts of Antarctic and Southern Ocean abrupt changes.

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