Cartwright, Paula, Genson, Allyson, and Waltham, Nathan (2025) The effect of wet season river flows on flood plume distribution across northern Australia; contribution to coastal productivity, and future extent under climate change. Regional Studies in Marine Science, 89. 104307.

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Abstract

Northern Australia is home to some of the world’s most expansive and ecologically significant river systems, including the Flinders, Gilbert, and Daly Rivers. These river catchments, which drain into the Gulf of Carpentaria and the Timor Sea, are vital to both the health of the region’s estuaries, coastal ecosystems and its commercial fisheries. This study investigates the relationship between wet season river flows, flood plume extent, and primary productivity in adjacent coastal seas, with a focus on understanding potential impacts from climate change and water extraction on these dynamics. Hydrological data from 2003 to 2023 was analysed for the Flinders, Gilbert, and Daly Rivers to determine peak flow events and their corresponding flood plume sizes using MODIS satellite imagery. The study found that flood plumes were highly variable across the 20-year period, with significant events recorded in 2019 and 2023 and strong relationships between 7-day river flows and plume extents for all rivers. Chlorophyll-a concentration, as a proxy for primary productivity, was significantly associated with plume sizes in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria and Anson Bay, specifically for tertiary plumes from the Flinders, Gilbert, and Daly Rivers. Future climate projections indicate potential reductions in rainfall by 2070–2099, which could lead to decreases in flood plume extent and associated primary productivity. This research highlights the critical connection between river flows, coastal flood plumes, and marine productivity in northern Australia. The findings underscore the importance of maintaining environmental water flows to sustain coastal ecosystems and fisheries, particularly in the context of increasing water allocation pressures and the potential impacts of climate change on regional rainfall patterns.

Item ID:	86071
Item Type:	Article (Research - C1)
ISSN:	2352-4855
Keywords:	Flood plumes, Northern Australia, Wet Season Floods, Coastal Productivity Water Allocation Policy, River nutrients
Copyright Information:	© 2025 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
Date Deposited:	09 Jul 2025 01:56
FoR Codes:	37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3702 Climate change science > 370299 Climate change science not elsewhere classified @ 30% 37 EARTH SCIENCES > 3708 Oceanography > 370801 Biological oceanography @ 30% 41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4102 Ecological applications > 410299 Ecological applications not elsewhere classified @ 40%
SEO Codes:	19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1902 Environmental policy, legislation and standards > 190211 Water policy (incl. water allocation) @ 30% 19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1905 Understanding climate change > 190504 Effects of climate change on Australia (excl. social impacts) @ 30% 18 ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT > 1805 Marine systems and management > 180599 Marine systems and management not elsewhere classified @ 40%
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