Canning, A.D., Zammit, C., and Death, R.G. (2025) The implications of climate change for New Zealand’s freshwater fish. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, 82. 0127.

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Abstract

Climate change is poised to reshape ecological communities globally by driving species into new environments and altering interactions between species. Conservation efforts should not only address current pressures but also plan for future pressures, such as sensitive species moving into degraded environments or arising problematic trophic interactions. This study sought to assess how climate change may affect the end-of-century distributions of New Zealand’s native and nonnative freshwater fish, including consequences for the overlap between trout (a nonnative sports fish) and native species vulnerable to trout predation. Random forest modelling was used to predict end-of-century distributions for New Zealand’s freshwater fish based on six hydrologically downscaled global climate models across four representative concentration pathways. Severe climate change impacts could drive nine native fish species to extinction or near-extinction and cause substantial declines in another eight native species. Seven nonnatives are also predicted to decline substantially, including a 30%–40% reduction in the extent of trout. To avert these potential extinctions, it is crucial to mitigate climate change severity and improve land use impacting freshwater ecosystems.

Item ID:	85285
Item Type:	Article (Research - C1)
ISSN:	1205-7533
Keywords:	predation, trophic impacts, global warming, rainbow trout, brown trout, galaxiid
Copyright Information:	© 2025 Authors Canning and Death; and National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and source are credited.
Date Deposited:	30 Apr 2025 00:33
FoR Codes:	31 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 3103 Ecology > 310304 Freshwater ecology @ 30% 41 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES > 4101 Climate change impacts and adaptation > 410102 Ecological impacts of climate change and ecological adaptation @ 70%
SEO Codes:	19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1901 Adaptation to climate change > 190102 Ecosystem adaptation to climate change @ 50% 18 ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT > 1803 Fresh, ground and surface water systems and management > 180303 Fresh, ground and surface water biodiversity @ 30% 18 ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT > 1803 Fresh, ground and surface water systems and management > 180302 Control of pests, diseases and exotic species in fresh, ground and surface water @ 20%
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