van de Pol, Martijn, Bailey, Liam D., Frauendorf, Magali, Allen, Andrew M., van der Sluijs, Martijn, Hijner, Nadia, Brouwer, Lyanne, de Kroon, Hans, Jongejans, Eelke, and Ens, Bruno J, (2024) Sea-level rise causes shorebird population collapse before habitats drown. Nature Climate Change, 14. pp. 839-844.

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Abstract

Sea-level rise will lead to widespread habitat loss if warming exceeds 2 °C, threatening coastal wildlife globally. Reductions in coastal habitat quality are also expected but their impact and timing are unclear. Here we combine four decades of field data with models of sea-level rise, coastal geomorphology, adaptive behaviour and population dynamics to show that habitat quality is already declining for shorebirds due to increased nest flooding. Consequently, shorebird population collapses are projected well before their habitat drowns in this UNESCO World Heritage Area. The existing focus on habitat loss thus severely underestimates biodiversity impacts of sea-level rise. Shorebirds will also suffer much sooner than previously thought, despite adapting by moving to higher grounds and even if global warming is kept below 2 °C. Such unavoidable and imminent biodiversity impacts imply that mitigation is now urgently needed to boost the resilience of marshes or provide flood-safe habitat elsewhere.

Item ID:	83675
Item Type:	Article (Research - C1)
ISSN:	1758-6798
Copyright Information:	© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited 2024
Date Deposited:	18 Sep 2024 22:21
FoR Codes:	31 BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES > 3103 Ecology > 310307 Population ecology @ 100%
SEO Codes:	19 ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL HAZARDS > 1901 Adaptation to climate change > 190102 Ecosystem adaptation to climate change @ 100%
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